Michigan is a dead heat according to most accurate 2016 pollster

Tom Bevan:

Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016: Michigan a Dead Heat

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Cahaly’s survey, using the same methodology he employed four years ago but with an enhanced system for targeting likely voters, shows the race in Michigan as extremely competitive. The pollster also continues to see signs of “shy” or “reluctant” Trump voters in the electorate. Known as “social desirability bias,” it refers to the effect of respondents not telling the truth about whom they will vote for because they think their choice will be viewed unfavorably by others, including those conducting the survey. In a phone interview today, Cahaly said the social desirability bias he is seeing is “worse than it was four years ago.”

Cahaly also pointed out, social desirability notwithstanding, African American support for Trump in the survey registered 11.8%, which would represent a significant increase over four years ago. According to the 2016 exit polls, Trump won just 6% of African American voters in Michigan.
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The registered voter polls continue to show a wide margin for Biden, but they all tend to have a heavy Democrat bias.  This year I would supplement the likely voter polls with the results of polls on the issues.  When polled on the issues voters tend to back the Trump position by a large margin.  That would probably give a good idea of the shy voter problem.