US set to surpass Saudi export of petroleum by end of 2019

Bloomberg/Fuel Fix:
America’s booming oil production could set the stage for country’s total petroleum exports to surpass those of Saudi Arabia by end-2019, according to Rystad Energy AS.

This year, the U.S. will add another 1 million barrels a day of crude production, after last year’s 2 million barrel a day increase, even as independent operators are cutting capital spending. Increasing supply and growing export capacities will push America’s total petroleum shipments abroad to be on par to those of Saudi Arabia by the year’s end at around 9.5 million barrels, Oslo-based Rystad said.

America’s oil industry currently exports 8 million barrels a day of petroleum compared with Arabia’s 9 million, Rystad data show. Petroleum exports include crude, natural gas liquids and refined products. With a couple of exceptions in weekly data, the U.S. is still typically a net petroleum importer.

“This means the U.S. will match Saudi Arabia when it comes to gross exports of oil and petroleum products,” Per Magnus Nysveen, Rystad’s head of analysis, said. “It could also likely exceed Saudi Arabia.”

American producers will ship out about four million barrels a day of crude by the end of the year, about a million more that it does now, according to Rystad. Saudi crude outflows will reach 7.5 million by end-2019 from the current 7 million.
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Texas is putting he infrastructure in place to grow production to significantly higher levels, with new pipelines to get it to new export terminals along the Texas coast.  I expect 2020 and beyond production to continue to increase.  If refineries switch from imported heavy crude to the more efficient light crude being produced in the shale wells the US can not only be a net exporter but an energy independent country.  The current mandate for ethanol should also be removed and let the market decide if it is needed. 

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