Suburban women voters in Texas are a problem for Trump

Washington Examiner:
From the outside, Texas appears troubling for President Trump in 2020 because of demographic changes that have featured a steady climb in the population of Hispanic voters.

But actually, the leftward drift, first evident in 2016 when Trump won Texas by less than 10 percentage points, is a byproduct of sharp opposition to the president in Texas’ burgeoning upscale suburbs that are dominated by whites, according to Texas Republican strategists.

In 2016, Trump lost suburban Houston’s 7th Congressional District and suburban Dallas’ 32nd Congressional District — both traditionally held by Republicans up and down the ballot — to Democrat Hillary Clinton.

In 2018 the Republican incumbents who for several years had easily defended these House seats fell to Democratic challengers in the midterm elections. The president’s particularly low job approval ratings among women fueled the Democratic Party's victories there, and Republicans worry that this situation could foreshadow what's to come next year.

“It’s the suburbs,” Robin Armstrong, who represents Texas on the Republican National Committee, acknowledged in an interview with the Washington Examiner. “That’s basically the woman’s vote. We need to make sure that we’re engaging females and letting them know that we’re addressing their values and concerns.”

In 2018, Hispanic turnout in Texas rose by about 73 percent from 2014, according to a post-election review issued by Latino Victory Fund. But, as revealed by figures compiled by the Texas secretary of state, voter turnout overall increase a bit more, by about 77 percent. That would suggest the growing strength of Democrats in the state is not due to the rising Hispanic population.

GOP political strategists in Texas, who keep close tabs on the electorate, say it is the significant shifts detected among whites that explain Republican leaders' anxiety about 2020.
I suspect the problem is based more on the President's personality than policy differences.  Trump's policies have been a boost for the Texas economy.  His rollback of regulations has allowed the growth of the oil and gas business in the state and created thousands of jobs.  Infrastructure projects in the state to get the oil to market are also increasing jobs. and new port facilities are being built to increase trade for a state that is already the leading exporter in the country.  The Democrat alternative would harm the Texas economy and put these women voters' and their husbands' jobs at risk. 

I think Trump is actually making inroads with the Hispanic community with his policies.  Their jobless rate is the losest it has ever been.  There are also more Hispanic politicians who are winning races in Texas.  The Democrats abortion extremism will also hurt them with the Hispanic community.

The tight race between Beto O'Rourke and Ted Cruz was more a product of O'Rourke's lavish advertising budget than a real movement.  He outspent Cruz by a significant amount and still lost the race.  I think it will be difficult for Democrats to raise that kind of money to spend in Texas with a national race.


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