CO2's overrated impact on the climate
The non-warming of the climate has become a topic much discussed since about 2005. John Christy has testified to Congress about the "gap" between IPCC climate models, which are based on steadily increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 and observations of atmospheric temperatures, measured by both satellites and radiosondes, 1978-2015 (see Christy fig. below).I have made the argument that the failure of the actual data to match the climate models of those who support the climate change theory is because one or more assumptions in their projections are invalid. That is a standard analysis whenever projections are not met and most people who work with them can point out which of the assumptions were not realized. Business models are handled this way all the time. Using that same analysis on climate change models leads me to believe that those making the projections are overstating the impact of CO2 on the climate.
There have been many attempts to explain this discrepancy, ranging from a flat denial that such a gap exists (Tom Karl, Science, 2015, pp. 1,469-1,472, doi: 10.1126/science.aaa5632) to attempts to account for the "missing incoming energy." For example, Kevin Trenberth has proposed that the missing energy, instead of warming the atmosphere, "hides" in the deep ocean, to be released later.
Based on all the foregoing discussion, of the log-dependence of CO2 forcing (Myhre et al., GRL, 1998, vol. 25, doi: org/10.1029/98GLO1908) and its possible climate-cooling effect, I have a simpler hypothesis on the ineffectiveness of CO2 in warming the climate. I realize that this explanation is unacceptable to the IPCC and to many climate-warming advocates. I believe that the "gap," now 40 years long, according to Christy, has existed throughout the Industrial Revolution — and probably during the whole of the Holocene. In other words, I consider that the "pause" may be permanent.
I also believe that the gap will continue to grow in the future and demonstrate a convincing empirical argument supporting my explanation — namely, that CO2 no longer affects the climate, except perhaps at the slow level of its log-dependence.