The blue state unemployment problem

 Ned Barnett:

August’s unemployment figures, just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, paint a remarkably consistent picture that correlates – almost uncannily – between low unemployment rates in states led by Republican governors and high unemployment rates in states led by Democratic governors.  Drawing national conclusions from the unemployment statistics for all fifty states, those Republican-led states that have tried to follow President Trump’s lead in reopening America are doing much better in terms of unemployment than are states likely to support Biden in November.  Former Vice President Biden, while repeatedly complaining about President Trump’s actions in fighting COVID, has yet to articulate a coherent COVID policy.  

Remarkably, these early-opening Republican-led states do not have a statistically-valid comparative rate of increase in COVID deaths, as presented by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, though the three states with the lowest death per 100,000 population are led by Republican governors.

Here’s how those unemployment numbers flesh out:

Of the Top Ten states (in terms of low unemployment rates), nine are led by Republican governors while only one is led by a Democratic governor – and that’s Montana, which is an outlier for sure.  At the other end of the spectrum, unemployment in the Bottom Ten states in terms of unemployment breaks down as follows:  one state led by a Republican governor –Massachusetts, another clear outlier – and nine led by Democratic governors.  The range of unemployment by state runs from 4.0 percent in Republican Nebraska to a 13.2 in Democratic Nevada, which, after more than a decade of Republican governors, switched allegiance in 2018 by electing a Democrat to the state’s highest office.  Talk about buyer’s remorse!

Perhaps more telling than just the extremes of both employment and unemployment figures, the Top Ten states – nine of which, as noted, are led by Republicans – average an unemployment rate of just 4.94 percent.  However, among the Bottom Ten states – nine of which are led by Democrats – the average is a crippling 11.72 percent.  Ouch!

As interesting as those paired numbers might seem – nine Republican led states are among the Top Ten states with the lowest unemployment, with only one Democratic led state – that pattern is completely flipped among the worst-case states.  Of those, nine are led by Democrats and only one is led by a Republican.  However, while that breakdown seems almost statistically impossible, this same pattern repeats when looking at the Top Fifteen states in terms of unemployment – twelve are led by Republicans while only three are led by Democrats.  Flip that around to the Bottom Fifteen and you’ll find that twelve are led by Democrats and only three of the bottom fifteen are led by Republicans.  Also in there, though not counted, the District of Columbia (tied with the “best” of the bottom fifteen states) is also run by Democrats (but not a Democratic governor – the District has a mayor, not a governor).

Finally, when splitting the states 50-50, the same pattern still holds true.  The Top Twenty-Five states, in terms of low unemployment, sees eighteen states led by Republicans and seven led by Democrats.  In the bottom half, those numbers are again reversed, with eighteen of the bottom twenty-five states led by Democrats – plus the District of Columbia – and only seven led by Republicans.   Among the Top Twenty-five states, the highest unemployment score is 7.0 percent, with the best-off state reporting in at just 4.0 percent unemployment.  However; in the Bottom Twenty-five states (plus the District of Columbia), the best and lowest unemployment score is a painful 7.4 percent, with the worst one reaching up to 13.2 percent – that’s tail-end Nevada.  Florida, the other state – this one Republican – that depends so much on conventions and tourist business has that 7.4 percent unemployment rate. That’s not good, but it’s light years ahead of Nevada.

... 

There is more.

I think the blue state governors are more into lockdowns than red state governors.  Massachusetts may be an outlier, but it is a state dominated by Democrats that happens to have a GOP governor.  To some extent, the difference appears to be Democrat governors hoping to create a recession to blame on Trump.  Trump has consistently noted the importance of reopening the economy while Democrats have pushed lockdowns  and talked about "the science." 

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