Youth vote going to Bush, not Dems
Morton Kondrake:
"Here's a harrowing pair of facts for Democrats: In 60 years, no Democrat has ever won the presidency without carrying the youth vote. And right now President Bush's approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds is 62 percent, higher than his nationwide rating.
"Top Republican strategists admit that the youth vote is fluid, but right now the trends are all in their direction, which they hope is a harbinger not only for 2004, but also a possible longer-term party realignment.
" 'It's called the theory of political socialization,' one Bush campaign official told me. "Who are the most Democratic people in America? It's the over-65 age group. Why? Because the two presidents they knew best were Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover.
" 'And who are the most Republican? People in their 40s, who came of age in the last two years of Jimmy Carter and the first two years of Ronald Reagan. 'If your politics were being formed during the last two years of Bill Clinton and the first two years of George Bush, there's a fairly good chance that we'll have your support.'
"According to the Bush campaign's chief of strategy, Matthew Dowd, 'In polls and focus groups, young people are attracted by Bush's qualities of leadership - his saying what he means - more than they are by Republican policy. But once that window is open, it's easier for us to speak to them.' "
Actually to have any memory of Herbert Hoover someone would would have to be closer to 80 than 65 since his term ended 72 years ago. One factor that may be effecting youth voting is what James Tarranto calls the "Roe effect." He suggest that since the Roe v. Wade decision permitting abortion, the people most likely to raise their children as liberals have instead opted for abortion in large numbers, whereas people who are conservative have tended to chose life. It is an intriguing theory that the Democrats have lost 20,00,000 potential voters to abortions. It reminds one of the Democrats campaign finance reform that dramatically cut the funding to the Democrat party. Anyway, it is no longer the majority party and the trends do not look good for the Dems.
Morton Kondrake:
"Here's a harrowing pair of facts for Democrats: In 60 years, no Democrat has ever won the presidency without carrying the youth vote. And right now President Bush's approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds is 62 percent, higher than his nationwide rating.
"Top Republican strategists admit that the youth vote is fluid, but right now the trends are all in their direction, which they hope is a harbinger not only for 2004, but also a possible longer-term party realignment.
" 'It's called the theory of political socialization,' one Bush campaign official told me. "Who are the most Democratic people in America? It's the over-65 age group. Why? Because the two presidents they knew best were Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover.
" 'And who are the most Republican? People in their 40s, who came of age in the last two years of Jimmy Carter and the first two years of Ronald Reagan. 'If your politics were being formed during the last two years of Bill Clinton and the first two years of George Bush, there's a fairly good chance that we'll have your support.'
"According to the Bush campaign's chief of strategy, Matthew Dowd, 'In polls and focus groups, young people are attracted by Bush's qualities of leadership - his saying what he means - more than they are by Republican policy. But once that window is open, it's easier for us to speak to them.' "
Actually to have any memory of Herbert Hoover someone would would have to be closer to 80 than 65 since his term ended 72 years ago. One factor that may be effecting youth voting is what James Tarranto calls the "Roe effect." He suggest that since the Roe v. Wade decision permitting abortion, the people most likely to raise their children as liberals have instead opted for abortion in large numbers, whereas people who are conservative have tended to chose life. It is an intriguing theory that the Democrats have lost 20,00,000 potential voters to abortions. It reminds one of the Democrats campaign finance reform that dramatically cut the funding to the Democrat party. Anyway, it is no longer the majority party and the trends do not look good for the Dems.
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