Trump has a shot of overturning results in Georgia

Shipwreckedcrew:

For anything to have even a remote chance of changing when it comes to the outcome of the Electoral College, the current status of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia must change.

Pennsylvania is a bit of a mess at this point, but there are meaningful challenges to the vote totals still pending, the adverse decision in federal district court is being appealed (interestingly, only the denial of leave to amend is being appealed), and a new complaint relating to Philadelphia and the surrounding counties is being suggested as a possibility.  I’ll summarize these in a day or two as more comes into focus this week.

The campaign has asked for recounts in two Wisconsin counties — Dane and Milwaukee.  Both produced a large number of Biden votes — Dane County particularly.  I’m not sure exactly what the goal is in recounting those counties, but it seems as if Wisconsin law allows challenges to ballots to be made during the recount process.  The margin is only 20,000 votes out of 3.2 million cast, so it is not out of the question that if there was some nefarious practice engaged in, a recount might uncover a decent number of votes.  Wisconsin has same-day registration, so the emphasis might be to target suspicious registrations as potentially invalid votes in those two counties.

But in Georgia, the approach seems to be a normal election contest that will take place in Georgia state court, and the evidence may be coming into focus that gives the Campaign a legitimate chance to reverse the outcome.  The margin of Biden’s win in Georgia is only 12,500 votes, and the Trump campaign has requested a machine recount which they are entitled to under Georgia law given the narrow margin.  After that, I am expecting that the Campaign will file a Petition to Challenge the election as explained in more detail below.

What the Trump campaign seems to be focusing on is the validity of approximately 1 million new voter registrations between Nov. 2018 and Nov. 2020.  From official Georgia state records:

Nov. 2018:  6,248,591 Active Registered Voters

Nov. 2020:  7,233,584 Active Registered Voters

To register to vote in Georgia, an applicant must provide a residence address.  The applicant can provide a different mailing address, but a residence address is required as that determines what election district the applicant will vote in and on what local races.  This requirement is clearly set forth on the application.

Absentee ballots cast in 2020 totaled 1,322,529.  I expect the campaign is spending time and resources cross-referencing the newly registered voters against the mail-in ballots.

But a person connected to the campaign has already given some hints on Twitter as to what the Campaign is looking at:

There is also anecdotal information — not yet verified — that many such businesses in the metro-Atlanta area exhausted their inventory of available boxes in September and October.

To the extent they are able, what it seems the campaign is doing is cross-referencing the street addresses of these commercial mail-drop businesses against voter registration information.

The issue of the “signature matching” requirements under Georgia law — as modified by the Secretary of State in settling a lawsuit brought by the Democrat Party of Georgia — is also at issue.

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There is much more including a discussion of the Georgia law that allows the challenges. 

These issues are in addition to the ones raised by Lin Wood in the case he brought and the one being filed by Sidney Powell this week.  The challenges in Georgia should not be that hard to adjudicate.  The use of commercial postal services for purposes of residency should be easy to run to the ground and lead to direct disqualification of the ballots as well as criminal trials.