Putin not interested in a quick end in Ukraine

Carol Williams:

With expectations low, it came as a surprise to Western diplomats when Russia signed off on an agreement calling for armed separatists in eastern Ukraine to lay down their weapons and surrender the public buildings they have been occupying for weeks.

What hasn’t been surprising in the days since is Russia’s apparent unwillingness to ensure that those terms are quickly and cleanly enforced.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has two objectives in what the Ukrainian and Western governments say is his thinly disguised backing of the separatists. Neither is served by pushing for a quick end to the challenges to Ukraine’s interim government in Kiev.

Putin wants to regain the influence he had over Ukraine before Kremlin-allied President Viktor Yanukovich was ousted by a popular rebellion in late February. He can do that by forcing constitutional reform that would reconfigure Ukraine into a federation of highly autonomous regions, in effect allowing Moscow veto power in the Russian-speaking border areas already under its sway. Failing that, he can invade and annex territory, as he did recently in Crimea.

Putin’s other objective is to muddy the Ukrainian presidential election scheduled for May 25. Balloting that is widely regarded as fair and inclusive would confer legitimacy on the central government in Kiev, undercutting Russia’s claim that it needs to look out for Russian-speaking Ukrainians.

Continued defiance by pro-Russian gunmen would undermine the Kiev leadership’s ability to govern or organize polling places and international monitoring for the presidential vote in less than five weeks.
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There is much more.

Williams also points out that the popular reaction to the aggression within Russia has yet to be sobered by the negative economic effect which won't be felt for awhile as it ripples through.  Most of the economic effect has been more market driven than biting sanctions, and many like myself think they need to be much more done in that regard as well as putting competitive pressure on Putin's main source of revenue with aggressive US energy production and trade with Europe.

Opinion Journal has more on the cost of the Ukraine operation to the Russian economy.