Trump would be doomed in November

David Freddoso:
Buried deep within the exit polls from New York's primary last night was a mind-boggling result. As Republicans in Donald Trump's home state handed him an easy and resounding victory, 56 percent of them expressed the belief that Trump has "the best chance" to defeat Hillary Clinton in November.

If this seems strange, it's because it is. In the real world, Trump trails Hillary Clinton by large margins in the polls — not just some polls, but every recent poll, and even in polls of some very Republican-leaning states like Utah. Both Ted Cruz and John Kasich do much better against Clinton, despite the fact that both trail Trump in the Republican primaries.

One poll even suggests that Trump would struggle against Clinton in deep-Red Mississippi, whereas the other Republican candidates — both of whom got fewer votes in Mississippi's primary — would beat her there effortlessly.

This points to a deeper mathematical truth about American elections. An argument that Trump supporters often cling to is that Trump is doing better than other Republicans in the primaries, and therefore it follows that he will do better than they would in general elections.

But this doesn't follow at all. What people fail to consider is that relatively few Americans vote in primaries, and they aren't representative of the general voting population. The difference of scale between these two types of elections renders the primary results insignificant in divining general election results, which will depend on completely different factors.

Trump has won about 8.8 million votes right now (37.9 percent) in the GOP primaries, and he will finish this year's primary season with something like 12 or 13 million votes. Now consider: This number represents about one-fifth of what a candidate in this year's general election will need just to lose respectably, by a Romney-like margin. After all, about 130 million people will likely cast votes for president.
It points to the delusion that infects Trump and his supporters.  How is he going to win by getting only around 20 percent of the women votes, 15 percent or less of Hispanics and 5 percent or less of blacks?  If he seriously thinks that all of the people and groups he has been alienating and denigrating for months or going to "come around" he is seriously misinformed.

He may have conned 38 percent of GOP voters, but that means his ceiling is well below what is needed to be competitive in November.   The fact that Hillary Clinton is a terrible candidate is not enough to save him, it only highlights how historically bad Trump is.


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