GOP has the most passionate voters


Although U.S. registered voters are closely divided in their 2010 congressional election preferences, those who say they are "very enthusiastic about voting" this year show a strong preference for the Republican Party.

The analysis is based on interviews with more than 5,000 U.S. registered voters conducted April 1-25, 2010, as part of Gallup Daily tracking.

Gallup has consistently found Republicans expressing a higher level of enthusiasm than Democrats about voting in this year's election campaign. Theoretically, those who are enthusiastic about voting would be more likely to turn out to vote than those who are not enthusiastic. This fall, Gallup will be better able to measure the potential impact of turnout on the vote by applying its "likely voter" model to the generic ballot results. That model takes into account a more complete set of factors related to voting, including interest in the election, intention to vote, and past voting behavior.

In addition to the enthusiasm divide, Gallup polling since the start of April reveals large gender and marital gaps in congressional voting preferences.

Specifically, men are more likely than women to say they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election were held today, while women would favor the Democratic candidate. Those who are currently married are more likely to support Republicans, and the unmarried are more likely to support Democrats.


The Republicans have a 20 vote lead in voter enthusiasm. Gallup polls registered voters instead of likely voters. His measure of enthusiasm is a way of suggesting which party has the more likely voters at this point. In Rasmussen's poll of likely voters the Republicans have a much greater lead in the generic ballot than Gallup gives them.

The Democrats are in trouble right now and I do not see their current maneuvering helping their situation. Young voters who skewed Democrat in 2008 were the least enthusiastic about voting this year.


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