Russia reshuffles commanders, as its economy weakens
The Russian military command appears to be increasingly shifting responsibility for offensive operations in Ukraine to the Russian Airborne troops (VDV). The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on April 16 that it is highly likely that VDV commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky has returned to a “major” but unspecified role in Ukraine after reports that the Russian MoD replaced him on January 13.[1] UK MoD noted that Teplinsky’s return to command in Ukraine will not be limited to just VDV units, but that it is also likely that Teplinsky will try to promote the VDV’s traditional role as an elite force.[2] ISW previously assessed on April 1 that milblogger speculation that the Russian MoD recalled Teplinsky from ”leave“ suggests that Russia may be preparing to reshuffle senior commanders following the failed winter offensive and in preparation for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.[3] The UK MoD’s apparent confirmation of Teplinsky’s reappointment to a senior command position supports ISW’s assessment, and additionally suggests that the Russian military command is likely seeking to place an increased emphasis on the role of VDV elements in Russian offensive operations. VDV units are actively engaged along critical sectors of the front in Luhansk Oblast and near Bakhmut and have recently received TOS-1A thermobaric artillery systems, further indicating that the Russian military command may seek to elevate the VDV to greater operational prominence.[4]
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Teplinsky remains highly unlikely to restore the VDV to its prior status as an elite force due to widespread losses to the most elite Russian units. VDV units suffered extraordinarily high losses in the early phases of the war in 2022, and a prominent milblogger claimed on Russian state television on January 31 that VDV forces lost 40 to 50 percent of their personnel between the start of the war and September 2022.[10] BBC Russia Service confirmed the deaths of 1,669 VDV personnel as of April 14, 2023.[11] Widespread losses to previously elite units that are now being restaffed with poorly trained mobilized personnel are likely to have long-term impacts on the combat effectiveness of these units, and the replacement of a single commander is highly unlikely to be able to solve such pervasive damage.[12]
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Russia is running low on troops and commanders and is trying to cobble together its military in anticipation of a Ukraine offensive. I get the impression that both Russia and Ukraine are running low on troops at this point. Ukraine has somewhat of an advantage in that it is still getting supplies and weapons from NATO nations while Russia is pulling antique tanks out of storage.
See, also:
Ukrainian Armed Forces repel over 60 attacks and shoot down Russian Su-25 aircraft
Over the course of the day, the Russians launched 28 air and six missile strikes, carried out 38 attacks using multiple-launch rocket systems on positions of Ukrainian troops and civilian infrastructure in settlements.
The Russian aggressor continues to focus its main efforts on conducting offensive actions on the Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marinka fronts. Bakhmut and Marinka remain at the epicentre of the fighting. Over the past day, Ukrainian troops repelled over 60 Russian attacks in these areas.
The settlements of Buniakyne, Iskryskivshchyna, Volfyne, Shpyl, Basivka, Yunakivka and Popivka in Sumy Oblast and Kozacha Lopan, Hatyshche, Vovchansk and Vovchanski Khutory in Kharkiv Oblast came under Russian fire.
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Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of the Russian paramilitary unit, said that the country was in a state of "crisis," according to Sky News. Prigozhin also criticized Russian state elites, who, he said, "operate independently of the political leadership of the state and have close ties and their own agenda."
Prigozhin wrote that Ukraine would launch a counteroffensive and would likely break through Russian defenses as the country's military operations have been weakened by the "decadent elite," according to the Telegraph.
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The country's finances have taken a massive hit. Russia's private sector is shrinking, it has posted a $29 billion deficit in the first three months of 2023, and its main revenue sources – oil and gas exports – have plunged since a price cap was imposed by Western powers late last year.
Russia's growing economic ties to China, its unstable currency, and rising doubts about the accuracy of official government data coming out of Moscow are just some the key developments over the past week.
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Crimean Tatar leader Chubarov predicts how Ukraine will liberate Crimea
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... Ukraine is currently accumulating special, high-precision weapons that will be used to destroy specific targets, as military experts have predicted.
“To deprive Russian troops of control over Crimea, certain targets have been chosen: the bridge across the Kerch Strait, the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s military ships, and powerful ammunition depots,” Chubarov revealed.
“It is known where they are located, particularly near Dzhankoy. Last year, one such depot was blown up.This is to block the overland corridor from the occupied Crimea through parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhya oblasts, which are also currently occupied, to the territory of Russia.”
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Construction of the border fence is an initiative by the border guard that was approved by Prime Minister Sanna Marin's government amid wide political support last year. The main purpose of the three-meter (10-foot) high steel fence with a barbed-wire extension on top is to prevent illegal immigration from Russia and give reaction time to authorities, Finnish border officials say.
In 2015-2016, Moscow attempted to influence Finland by organizing large numbers of asylum-seekers to northern Finnish crossing points in the Arctic Lapland region. Russian authorities were seen deliberately ushering thousands of asylum-seekers - mostly from Iraq, Afghanistan and other Middle East nations - to those border crossing points.
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