Russia debates 'freezing' current operations in Ukraine

 ISW:

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The Angry Patriots Club accused Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin of supporting efforts to freeze the war in Ukraine. Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin and his Angry Patriots Club posed 40 direct questions addressed towards the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the Russian military command about Russia’s conduct of the war in Ukraine, foreign affairs, and domestic power struggles.[14] Girkin asked why Russian authorities are not arresting Prigozhin for his “direct calls” to freeze the war at the current frontlines, which Girkin characterized as calls to “violate the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation.”[15] Girkin notably mentioned Prigozhin when asking who was responsible for Russian withdrawal from Kherson Oblast – an operation overseen by Wagner-affiliated former Commander of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine at that time Army General Sergey Surovikin.[16] Girkin and Prigozhin have a long-standing feud – likely as a result of competition for patronage – and Girkin’s accusations against Prigozhin may be an attempt to discredit his rival.[17]

This accusation may also indicate that Prigozhin has found a patron – possibly affiliated with the Russian MoD – who supports the temporary freeze of the war in Ukraine for political reasons. The Angry Patriots Club previously amplified a forecast that miscontextualized Prigozhin’s April 14 essay as a call to end the war in Ukraine, stating that Prigozhin’s essay was the start of a political campaign to move to the defense of new territories and freeze the war.[18] The forecast noted that the Russian MoD and Russian private military companies (PMCs) are already recruiting contract servicemen to defend occupied positions, while Russian propagandists are entertaining news about the counteroffensive to possibly present a major victory to Russians if Ukrainians are unsuccessful.[19] The forecast argues that Russia would freeze the war for 2024 for political reasons such as the presidential elections if Russia is successful in repelling Ukrainian counteroffensives. Prigozhin’s essay notably called on Russia to commit to a decisive battle in Ukraine or embrace a temporary defeat that would allow Russia to set conditions for a future victory without negotiations.[20] It is possible that Girkin and his patrons are fearful that Prigozhin has joined the political faction that is urging Russian President Vladimir Putin to stop the war on current lines following planned Ukrainian counteroffensive.[21]

Prigozhin publicly restored his cooperation with the Russian MoD and seemingly regained some Kremlin-allocated privileges at the start of April after a months-long feud with the Russian military command.[22] The Russian MoD and the Russian military command could be interested in freezing the war to reconstitute Russian forces. ISW previously assessed that the Russian MoD had likely advised Putin early on about measures such as mobilization that could have changed the course of the war earlier, and the Russian MoD had previously ordered a short-lived operational pause over the summer of 2022, for example.[23] Prigozhin’s recent cooperation with the Russian MoD indicates that he may have reached an agreement with the Russian military command – possibly offering to advocate to Putin for a temporary ceasefire to regain the ability to grow his forces and expand his political standing ahead of Russian gubernatorial and presidential elections. Prigozhin had also been criticizing Putin’s maximalist goals in Ukraine and offering grim forecasts about Russia’s need for years-long grinding attacks to capture Donbas, which are likely part of the ceasefire narrative.[24]

A temporary ceasefire in Ukraine and protraction of the war will only benefit Russia by allowing it to reconstitute its forces and wear down Western support for Ukraine. Russia will use occupied territories in Ukraine as a springboard for future offensive operations after it restores its combat capabilities. Russia is continuing to weaponize information operations in the West to discourage military aid provisions, and such efforts will only intensify if Russia is able to establish a strong defensive line with contract servicemen and conscripts that will slow Ukrainian advances.[25]
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If they do decide on such a move it will probably be to go on the defensive in anticipation of a Ukraine offensive.  Under their current operations, they are burning through troops at a rapid rate to accomplish little in the way of their goal of conquering Ukraine.  The Russians have wasted thousands of soldiers trying to take a non-strategic area, not to mention all of the weapons it has wasted on the operations.  A freeze would give them time to reconstitute and train their new troops as well as increase their weapon production.  I tend to think it would not necessarily wear down Western support.  It would also give the West time to get Ukraine's weapons and ammo replaced.

See, also:

America Is Slapping Cannons on Trucks to Help Ukraine Stop Russia's Killer Drones

On April 4, the Department of Defense announced its latest package of military aid to Ukraine, totaling $2.6 billion. This includes a class of weapon no longer used by U.S. ground forces—a self-propelled anti-aircraft gun going by the ugly acronym SPAAG—that will almost surely be put together specially for Ukraine.

The list of transfers states the U.S. is giving “nine counter-Unmanned Aerial System 30mm gun trucks”—in other words, a slightly Mad Max union of a truck with a rapid-firing autocannon to kill drones.

Their intended mission has been spelled out by defense officials: stopping Russian kamikaze drones, particularly cheap Iranian Shahed-136s used to assail Ukrainian cities.

Closer to—but not on—the frontline, there’s a need to protect against more capable tactical-range Lancet-3 kamikaze drones. These drones have been recorded destroying or damaging many Western-supplied long-range artillery systems.
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And:

 Watch the First Confirmed Use of a Tank-Busting Switchblade-600 Drone In Ukraine

Shortly after being attacked by a kamikaze drone—or “loitering munition” in industry-speak—Russian forces in Ukraine recorded themselves picking over the wreckage of the killer robot. That footage reveals the first confirmed use of the tank-busting Switchblade-600 drone that the U.S. first ordered for delivery to Ukraine last year. (This has been misidentified by some observers as an Israeli HERO loitering munition; that craft has a different tail configuration).
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And:

 Commander-in-Chief explains how Ukrainian marines destroyed Pacific Fleet near Vuhledar

And:

 Russia denied entry for wounded occupiers, some of them died – General Staff

And:

 A dramatic video shows a famed Ukrainian unit dodging grenades and shooting Russian soldiers in close-combat trench warfare

And:

 Russian jets are dropping bombs rejigged with guidance systems that are delivering 'devastating hits' upon Ukrainian lines, report says

And:

 A fifth of Russian prisoners recruited to fight in Ukraine are HIV positive, with convicts promised anti-viral drugs if they agreed to fight: report