Putin under increasing pressure to go over to defensive

 ISW:

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Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is likely attempting to persuade Russian President Vladimir Putin to go over to the defensive ahead of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive. Prigozhin argued on April 21 that Russia needs to “anchor itself in such a way that it is only possible to tear out [Russian forces from their positions] with the claws of the opponent.”[5] Prigozhin’s comment followed a discussion of the Ramstein meeting results, Western commitments to train more Ukrainian personnel and continuous military support for Ukraine. Prigozhin also noted that Ukraine will try to “tear” Russian forces apart and that Russia needs to resist such attacks. Prigozhin has been increasingly alarmist in his recent rhetoric and has made similar statements about the uncertain future of Russian offensive operations in Donbas.[6] Prigozhin’s calls for strengthening Russian defenses in occupied territories and frequent discussions of the prospects of Ukrainian counteroffensives are notable as they indicate that he is trying to amplify the discussion in the Russian domestic information space. Russia, however, continues to conduct offensive operations in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Prigozhin is also advocating for Russia to focus on holding the current frontlines rather than seeking more gains so that Russian forces can regain their combat effectiveness for later offensive operations. Prigozhin is not arguing for Russia to end the war and negotiate with Ukraine and the West as some Russian and Western sources reported, as ISW previously observed, but is instead condemning the faction within the Kremlin that is hoping to end the war in negotiations.[7] Prigozhin is actually arguing that Russia needs to meet the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive at full strength and try to hold the current frontlines without ending the war or entering into peace negotiations.[8] He argues that a pause after the Ukrainian attack culminates would allow Russia to regain combat power and build nationalist support within the Russian society for renewing the fight even in the event of a defeat.[9] Prigozhin is also attempting to redefine and undermine some of Putin’s key maximalist goals in Ukraine—namely the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine—likely to minimize the informational impact that might result from going over to the defensive and abandoning efforts to gain more ground now.[10] Russian far-right paramilitary formation Rusich (Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group), which facilitates recruitment of Russian ultranationalist and irregular forces, echoed Prigozhin’s rejection of the “denazification” and “demilitarization” goals.[11] Rusich noted that Russia is fighting Ukraine to avenge Donbas, for living space, and for combat experience—rather than fighting claimed Ukrainian “fascism” and “Nazism.” By reframing Putin’s goals, Prigozhin and some factions within the ultranationalist community may be attempting to condition the Russian domestic information space for the prospect of frozen frontlines, potentially near the initial lines of February 23, 2022.

The Russian military command is likely attempting to convince Putin to turn to defensive operations as well—but may be unable to bluntly deliver this message to Putin. Some ultranationalist figures argued that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) signaled efforts to recruit 400,000 contract servicemen to ensure that Russia has enough military personnel to defend existing frontlines and to efficiently freeze the current frontlines in Ukraine.[12] The Russian military command is also reportedly transferring conscripts to hold Russian lines in Crimea and may be planning to prepare other resources to ensure that Russia can retain some lines once the potential Ukrainian counteroffensive culminates.[13] Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov are likely sensible to the threat of the Ukrainian counteroffensive but are likely continuing to send contract servicemen to reinforce senseless offensive operations at Putin’s insistence.[14] Kremlin sources previously revealed that Putin favors loyalty over competence, and this sentiment likely prevents Shoigu and Gerasimov from focusing on setting optimal conditions for an efficient defense by refusing to expend Russian elite units in grinding attritional battles for marginal gains.[15] ISW previously observed that Shoigu and Gerasimov were likely unable to convince Putin to conduct mobilization in May 2022—despite the fact that Russia needed such a measure to reconstitute forces necessary to maintain offensive operations in Ukraine.[16]
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So far, Putin is still clinging to his ever-weakening offensive operations and attempts to increase mobilization within Russia.  His offensive operations to date have been extremely costly in terms not only of manpower but also equipment losses.  Putin's goals of "denazification" and "demilitarization" were never realistic and appear to be just an attempt to justify the war, to begin with.  There is little to no evidence that Ukraine was ever a threat to invade Russia.

See, also:

Ukraine plans attacks on Russian forces in Syria – The Washington Post

A leaked top-secret US intelligence document has revealed that the Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine was developing plans to conduct covert attacks on Russian troops and mercenaries of Wagner Group PMC in Syria, using secret assistance from local Kurds - however, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ordered a halt to the planning of the operation in December.

Source: The Washington Post

Details: According to The Washington Post, the introduction of a new battlefield — thousands of miles from the war in Ukraine — appeared to be designed to impose costs and casualties on Russia and its Wagner paramilitary group, which is active in Syria, and possibly force Moscow to redeploy resources from Ukraine.

According to the leaked documents, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy directed a halt to the planning in December. But the leaked document, based on intelligence gathered as of 23 January, lays out in detail how the planning progressed and how such a campaign could proceed if Ukraine revived it, The Washington Post said.
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The documents indicate that Ukrainian military intelligence officers favoured striking Russian forces using unmanned aerial vehicles and starting "small" - that is, possibly limiting their strikes only to forces of the Wagner mercenary group.
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And:

 Russia cancelled Immortal Regiment march because it fears showing scale of losses – UK Intelligence

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On 18 April 2023, Russian state media announced that this year’s Immortal Regiment march has been cancelled, allegedly on "safety grounds", UK Intelligence recalls.

"The authorities were highly likely concerned that participants would highlight the scope of recent Russian losses," the UK Defence Ministry said.

This happened after Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagnerites, publicly questioned whether there were "Nazis" in Ukraine, contradicting the Russian justification for the war.

"The authorities have continued attempts to unify the Russian public around polarising myths about the 1940s," the UK Intelligence states.
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