Russia ammo shortages impacts Wagner mercenaries
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin threatened to withdraw Wagner forces from Bakhmut if the Russian military command fails to provide more ammunition to the Wagner mercenaries. Prigozhin stated in an interview with a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger on April 29 that the Wagner mercenaries will continue to fight in Bakhmut but will need to “withdraw in an organized manner or stay and die” if the situation does immediately not improve.[1] Prigozhin stated that Wagner needs about 80,000 shells per day — its previous shell allowance prior to apparent Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) efforts to reduce Wagner’s influence. Prigozhin added that Wagner is only receiving 800 of the 4,000 shells per day that it is currently requesting. Prigozhin claimed that Wagner and Deputy Commander of Russian Forces in Ukraine Army General Sergei Surovikin developed a plan to “grind” the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut that deprived Ukraine of its initiative on the battlefield. Prigozhin’s mention of Surovikin is likely an attempt to publicly affiliate with Surovikin as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favor is shifting away from Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov’s network.[2] Prigozhin is likely attempting to regain access to more ammunition as Putin is once again reshuffling the Russian military leadership in a way that may favor Prigozhin.
Prigozhin also continued his efforts to convince the Kremlin to go over to the defensive in eastern Ukraine. Prigozhin claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive could take place before May 15 but that the Russian military is not rushing to prepare to repel attacks.[3] Prigozhin’s threat to withdraw from Bakhmut may also indicate that Prigozhin fears that the Russian positions in Bakhmut’s rear are vulnerable to counterattacks.
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The expenditure of ammo has impacted Russian troops across the board and it looks like the Wagner mercenaries are not one of the highest priorities at this point. Going over to the defensive could lessen the need for as much ammo, and it doe make sense as a way to deal with an expected offensive. Putin does not appear to be taking advice from his commanders on this issue.
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"As for long-range cruise missiles, of course, everyone is counting them. They think they may be running out of them. Russia will continue to produce them, but not at the same pace. It is clear that these missiles they had, which they used to attack us in the summer and autumn, were manufactured for many years, and now Russia is unlikely to be able to catch up with that number.
Therefore, they will look for various other methods (to attack – ed.). Guided aerial bombs are one such option that they are using to replace missile weapons. Well, they will use old missile designs."
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Russia's economy is facing a record worker shortage amid losses in Ukraine and mass exodus
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But Russia's war on Ukraine has delivered a major shock to the workforce. The military mobilized 300,000 troops last year and plans to mobilize hundreds of thousands more this year.
And about 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded while fighting in Ukraine, with some estimates putting losses at 500 troops a day.
Meanwhile, nearly a million Russians may have left the country for various reasons, whether to escape the military mobilization or flee Western sanctions that have caused economic distress within the nation, according to the Washington Post.
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The hole in Russia's gas trade stems from the nation halting key pipeline flows to Europe in mid-2022 in retaliation for Western sanctions. The move was expected to exacerbate the supply shortage and push up energy prices for the West, but its efforts to weaponize gas have largely backfired, experts say, as it's been difficult for Russia to find other customers for its gas supplies.
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