Putin's bluster can't hide the failure of his Ukraine operation
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Russian President Vladimir Putin framed Russia’s efforts to consolidate control of occupied territories of Ukraine as a matter of internal security and rule of law during a meeting with the Russian National Security Council on April 5. Putin called for the continued economic, legal, and social integration of occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts into the Russian Federation and emphasized the importance of Russian “restoration” efforts in occupied areas in facilitating the integration process.[3] Putin also accused Ukraine of threatening civilians in occupied areas and highlighted recent ”terrorist attacks” against occupation officials and law enforcement agencies, referring to Ukrainian partisan attacks against occupation organs.[4] Putin emphasized the need for intensified law enforcement operations to guard against such attacks and called for the increased participation of local Ukrainian citizens in law enforcement processes, explicitly encouraging collaborators and informants in occupied areas. Putin has notably invoked the concept of “terrorism” and threats to Russian domestic security to justify domestic repressions and is likely setting conditions for further repressions and law enforcement crackdowns in occupied territories using similar framing.[5]
Putin also attempted to portray Russia as a respected world power against the backdrop of Chinese officials downplaying close relations with Russia. Putin held a televised meeting presenting ambassador credentials to the heads of 17 diplomatic missions on April 5, during which he highlighted Russia’s close relationship with Syria and cooperation with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), likely as part of ongoing Russian efforts to appeal to non-Western states.[6] Putin stated that Syria is a reliable partner with whom Russia reached several unspecified agreements during Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad's recent trip to Russia on March 14. Putin berated ambassadors from the United States and European Union (EU) states and claimed that the West is responsible for the war in Ukraine and geopolitical confrontation with Russia.
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Anyone touting support from Syria as evidence of respect has seriously lost the plot. Syria is not even a second-rate power. It is basically a failed state that Russia is trying to keep propped up. Putin is also still trying to prop up the occupied sections of Ukraine as if they are seriously a part of Russia. It looks like the partisan attacks by Ukraine forces have to some degree rattled Putin and the occupation authorities.
See, also:
Kremlin has problems with "military manpower" but fears new wave of mobilisation
"[Russia has – ed.] acknowledged that they needed 400,000 more troops and that's not just for the conflict [in Ukraine – ed.], but also to fulfil new formations, which are going to be put on the new border with NATO and Finland.
How they generate that is unclear at the moment."
Details: According to CNN sources, Russia has problems with the formation of a "trained military force". The aggressor is not making efforts to launch the second wave of mobilisation and has difficulties in training people.
Quote: "Whether the population can sustain another round of mobilisation and whether the Kremlin actually wants to test the population's resilience to that it is unclear at the moment, but the fact they haven't done [they did not start the second wave of mobilisation – ed.] would indicate to us that they have some concerns about that."
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Crippled logistics preclude Russia from launching offensive towards Zaporizhzhya
Russian military supply routes will collapse completely if it expands the offensive along the entire frontline, Dmytrashkivskyi said.
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Explosions rock Melitopol as Russia warns of Ukraine counter-attack
Several explosions shook an occupied Ukrainian city regarded as the “Gateway to Crimea” on Wednesday, as Russian collaborators warned Ukraine’s spring offensive could begin imminently.
The ousted Ukrainian mayor of Melitopol, in Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhzhia region, reported blasts in the “northern and western sectors” of the city on Wednesday, but did not give any more details.
“Collaborators of the temporarily occupied part of the Zaporizhzhia region have sounded the alarm,” said Ivan Fedorov. “It turns out that the orcs are abandoning ‘their own’.”
Independent Russian media also reported the explosions.
The explosions came as Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of planning “terrorist” attacks in both Russia and the occupied territories.
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These attacks could be a prelude to a Ukrainian offensive as they compound the Russian problem of dealing with the occupied area at the same time they are having to go onto the defensive
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Western nations — and Western media — have focused on meeting Ukraine's pleas for more tanks, but what Ukraine really needs is armored vehicles to carry infantry into battle, one expert argues.
Without those vehicles, Ukraine's large infantry force will lack the mobility to conduct a counteroffensive, according to Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyses think tank.
During a trip to Ukraine, including to Bakhmut, in early March, Kofman came away thinking, "Dear God, that is a lot of infantry battalions, not a lot of mobility," he said during a March 9 episode of the Geopolitics Decanted podcast.
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The problem is that Ukraine's corps lack heavily armed and armored infantry fighting vehicles — such as the US-made M-2 Bradley, Germany's Marder, or the Soviet-designed BMP — to equip mechanized infantry units sufficiently. Nor do the corps have enough trucks of the kind that carried motorized infantry into battle in World War II.
"There is a lot of mechanized infantry and tank brigades in each" corps that Ukraine is forming, Kofman said. "Some of them feature seven infantry battalions per brigade. There is no mechanization for them. There isn't actually a lot in the way of military motorization for them, either."
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The mechanized forces give an offensive more punch in a fast-moving operation.
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After weeks of digging, the area around the small town of Medvedivka, near a crossing to mainland Ukraine, is webbed with an elaborate trench system stretching several miles. The passages are cut into the earth at angles to give soldiers a broader range of fire. Nearby are other fortifications, including deep ditches designed to trap tanks and heavy vehicles.
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Satellite images provided to The Washington Post by Maxar, a commercial space technology company, show that Russia has built dozens of similar defenses.
"The Russian military, apparently, understands that Crimea will have to be defended in the near future," said Ian Matveev, a Russian military analyst.
The defenses have sprung up fast, ahead of an expected spring offensive by Ukraine. In just a few weeks, Russia built miles of fortifications near Vitino, a town on Crimea's western coast - even though analysts say an amphibious assault is unlikely.
The BTM-3, a Soviet-era trenching machine, digs as fast as half a mile per hour, even when the ground is frozen. The U.S. Army once marveled at these machines, writing in an internal 1980 report that nothing comparable existed in the United States, Europe or Japan.
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Ukrainian Forces mount successful counteroffensive in Avdiivka
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Proof that Putin’s Ukraine invasion has spectacularly backfired
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Before Putin invaded Ukraine last year, barely 30 per cent of Finns wanted their country to join Nato. Finland was largely comfortable with the dense network of security partnerships that it had devised since the end of the Cold War: close cooperation with Nato, participation in the EU’s common security and defence policy and military integration with its neighbour, Sweden, and the other Nordic partners.
Yet overnight public support for joining Nato shot up to around 80 per cent, and has stayed there ever since. Nato membership did not feature as an issue in last weekend’s Finnish elections despite the broad spectrum of parties participating. So, what has changed? Essentially two things.
First, Finnish security policy since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 has rested on the assumption that Russia would accept the borders and new system of states that emerged from that collapse. Yet in annexing Crimea in 2014, and now seeking to annex more areas of Ukraine’s territory, Putin has made clear that all borders that are once part of the Czarist or Soviet system are open to revision. This has profoundly unsettled the Finns, who believed that they had a predictable if delicate relationship with Moscow.
Second, Putin’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, as well as supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine in 2014 and this current war, have shown Finns that close partnership with Nato does not provide an immediate Nato response or protection. Only full membership and the obligation of collective defence under Article 5 of the Nato treaty can do that. The EU has a solidarity clause, and is stepping up its cooperation on defence issues. Yet only Nato has the forward deployed troops, command structures and reinforcement plans to actually implement collective defence. As Finland suddenly needed to upgrade its defence, Nato was the only credible option.
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Sweden has criticised Turkey for human rights abuses and over democratic standards, irking politicians in Ankara.
Turkey says Stockholm harbours members of what it considers terrorist groups - a charge Sweden denies - and has demanded their extradition as a step toward ratifying Swedish membership.
Sweden's courts have blocked some expulsions.
In recent weeks, Turkey has objected to protests in Stockholm during which the Muslim holy book, the Koran, was burned and, on a separate occasion, an effigy of Erdogan was hanged upside down.
Ankara says these are hate crimes. Sweden says they are covered by freedom of speech laws.
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And:
How Russia’s Offensive in Eastern Ukraine Ran Aground
Regardless of the outcome in Bakhmut, Moscow’s once-ambitious winter offensive never really went anywhere.
Check the map at the the link above.
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