Iraq is more like Lebanon than Vietnam

Strategy Page:

". . .The resistance in Iraq is led by Sunni Arabs (Baath Party) who want to regain control of the country. Working with this group are Islamic radicals (al Qaeda and local religious zealots), who would normally be fighting the Baath Party. Thus the resistance in Iraq has an ethnic minority (the 20 percent of the population that is Sunni Arab) as a base of support. What's developing is a civil war, similar to what went on in Lebanon from 1975-90. There, Islamic radicals (mostly Shias) first used suicide bombers against their political enemies (mostly Arab Christians.) The civil war in Iraq will probably be more vicious than the one in Lebanon, because the Sunni Arabs were quite savage towards the Shia Arab and Kurd majority, over centuries. But the last few decades of Sunni Arab rule were particularly nasty, and the Shia and Kurds will not be gentle in dealing with Sunni Arab resistance. In some Sunni Arab areas, the locals are becoming aware that American troops are actually protecting them from the wrath of Shia and Kurd gunmen. . . . The hostility between the Sunni minority and the majority Shia and Kurds will never end, but everyone will eventually get tired of the car bombs and other violence, just as they did in Lebanon and Egypt."


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