Trump is a weak front runner
Just now I opened up the CNN.com front page and was treated to a giant splash headline: “The Trump Juggernaut.” It’s an embarrassing insult to the intelligence of us all that the media is trying to tell us that a guy who is still losing primaries two weeks after Super Tuesday, and who hasn’t come close to breaking 50% in a single state is a “Juggernaut” and “inevitable.” Given that 40% of our party supports Donald Trump, I guess the insult is pretty well deserved.There are several reasons why Trump is so weak. It starts with the fact that he got to this point by alienating large segments of the GOP base. There is significant distrust of his stated positions because they tend to change so frequently. The most salient criticism is that no one can really know how he would govern. I think this is because Trump does not know how he will govern beyond trying to negotiate "better deals." He has no real brain trust to fall back on for advice and his pronouncements sound more like a stream of conscience novel than thoughtful planning.
CNN and the other networks have a vested interest in a Trump nomination for reasons that are both ideological and ratings-driven. But their memory-holing of basic historical facts is really getting to the point of being embarrassing. John King in particular has spent the last three consecutive election nights waxing rhapsodic about the breathtaking breadth of Trump’s support, like it’s nothing that’s ever been seen before. This is absolute hogwash of the highest order.
We are now two weeks past Super Tuesday, and Donald Trump is still losing primaries, barely winning others, and still has not cracked 50% once. He’s cracked 45% exactly 3 times in 27 states. Let’s compare this to how other previous Republican front runners have done.
As I detailed at some length a couple weeks ago, prior to 2008, no Republican Presidential primary was even meaningfully contested as of Super Tuesday. In 2008, John McCain became the weakest Republican front runner in Republican primary history, and the first to actually lose Super Tuesday contests since 1976. What was groundbreaking about the 2008 campaign was that going into Super Tuesday, there was an actual credible threat (albeit relatively small) that someone not named John McCain would emerge as the victor.
All that having been said, McCain’s strength – on Super Tuesday and beyond – was much higher than Trump’s current position....