Obama, Democrats tanking in polls
...The Social Security numbers probably reflect the Democrats' standing with older people more than the issue itself, but they are the voters who are most likely to show up at the polls so it is an important indicator.Obama's approval, in the Rasmussen Poll, has now dipped to 51 percent, one point less than his 2008 vote share of 52 percent. In past polls, most voters registering disapproval for the president had voted for Sen. John McCain. Now, Obama's starting to lose people who backed him last November.
But the true predictive measurement is a chief executive's and his party's ratings on specific issues. As these shift, so usually do his job-approval numbers and eventually his popularity. And current trends suggest that Obama is in for rough sledding -- his job-approval ratings likely will quickly fall into negative territory and then drop further.
Rasmussen asked voters to compare which party was best on 10 issues. While Obama's ratings are likely better than his party's, the Republicans can take heart in trumping their opposition in eight of the 10 categories.
The most significant topic was, of course, the economy. For the second straight month, Rasmussen shows a GOP lead over the Democrats, this time by 46 percent to 41 percent, indicating that the incessant bad news and the collapse of the false hopes the stock market entertained this spring have taken their toll.
And only 39 percent of voters say that Obama is doing an excellent or good job on the economy, 11 points lower than his overall job approval. Forty-three percent say he's doing fair or poor.
As unemployment continues to rise and even Obama predicts that times will get worse, this gap on economic issues will likely rise.
On their competing health-care reform plans, Rasmussen finds Obama and the Republicans drawing equal support. On health care generally, Democrats find their margin down to 4 points from 18 two months ago.
Obama is rapidly losing support on health reform, his key issue. And if he stays behind on health care and the economy for long, nothing much will hold him and his party aloft.
Rasmussen also found a Republican edge on many other issues. Democrats led Republicans 41 percent to 38 percent on education -- but the GOP led 49-40 percent on national security, 40-34 on immigration, 46-39 on abortion, 34-33 on ethics and corruption and -- get this -- 42-37 on Social Security.
When Republicans are winning on Social Security, it's bad news for the Democrats.
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I think what we are seeing a rejection of the liberalism that the Democrats thought they had a mandate for. It is also a reaction to the failure of their big spending approach to government.
More on the bad poll numbers here. This is a poll that oversamples Democrats which suggest that things are probably worse for Obama.
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