Trump stock market rally outpaces other Presidents
President Donald Trump’s stock market stacks up well against the majority of his presidential predecessors.Obama had a good year too, but his came from a really depressed market because of recession. Trump's is actually much more impressive. The Trump retail economy is also showing dramatic improvement and setting seasonal records.
The S&P 500 has returned more than 50% since Trump was elected, more than double the 23% average market return of presidents three years into their term, according data from Bespoke Investment Group dating to 1928.
The bellwether index gained more than 28% this year, well above the average 12.8% return of year three for past U.S. presidents.
Despite the volatility from the U.S.-China trade war, 2019 has been a year of all-time highs for the major stock averages. The S&P 500 crossed 3,200 for the first time ever last week, hitting its seventh round-number milestone of 2019. While business investment slumped due to uncertainty surrounding the world’s two largest economies, public market investors remained confident enough to put money into stocks.
Markets were also helped by one of the tightest labor markets in history, with the unemployment rate currently at 3.5%, its lowest since 1969. And since Americans were working, they were also spending. The strong U.S. consumer held the economy up during some reported manufacturing contractions. Consumers also held strong amid a messy bond market, when shorter-term bond yields rose above long-term yields, causing the yield curve to invert, a phenomenon known to precede recessions. The curve has since steepened and is no longer inverted.