Our allies in Middle East oppose Democrat plan

Captain's Quarter:

The Guardian (UK) has relentlessly opposed the war in Iraq for the past four years and more, giving its readers on the Left a steady diet of bad news and angry opinion based on its editorial policy. British newspapers have an open editorial bias, and readers expect news from a point of view. Guardian readers may find themselves surprised today, however, to find a detailed explanation of all the reasons why the nations in the Middle East do not want an American withdrawal from Iraq -- and the catastrophes that would follow one:

The so-called axis of moderate Arab states - comprising Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan - dreads an early US withdrawal. First, because it would be widely interpreted as an American defeat, which would weaken these pro-American regimes while both energising and radicalising their populations.

Second, if the US leaves, the emergence of a Shia regime in Iraq - in itself an offensive prospect to them - would only be a matter of time. Facing Arab antipathy, this regime would be likely to look eastward and forge close ties with its Iranian co-religionists. In the view of most Arabs, this would present a formidable challenge, setting in motion a series of dangerous events - an Iranian-Iraqi alliance; political and material support from Arab countries being offered to disgruntled Iraqi Sunni groups; retaliation by Iraqi forces; and the threat of broader regional involvement.

Third, a US departure risks triggering Iraq's partition. As some Arabs see it, the occupation is what holds the country together. So long as coalition forces are deployed, a full-blown breakup can be avoided.

The fallout of a withdrawal would not be contained within Iraq, either. An Iranian hegemony in Iraq would allow the radical Shi'a of both nations to export their destabilizing influence to other nations with restive Shi'ite populations, most notably Bahrain. From there, it could spread to the other smaller emirates in the region, destabilizing the power structure that the Sunnis have built in the last century -- a power structure based on oppression and religious fanatacism of their own, to be sure. Without American forces based in the region, we would have no ability to control or shape the outcome of such a collapse.

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While those closest to the action can see the problems the Democrats are creating the Democrats actually think they are foreign policy geniuses who the world agrees with. The Democrats are too focused on what they view as positive political consequences they expect from defeat to look at the real world consequences in the area of the disaster they are creating.