Ukraine attacks hit Moscow, Crimea

 ISW:

Likely Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike near the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) building in Moscow on July 24. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) claimed that Russian electronic warfare (EW) suppressed two Ukrainian UAVs that detonated, damaging two non-residential buildings.[1] One drone detonated on Komsomolsky Prospekt within 500 meters of the MoD building and within 200 meters of a reported secret Russian General Staff Main Directorate (GRU) building.[2] Russian sources reported that the second drone hit a business center on Likhachev Prospekt.[3] CNN reported that an unspecified Ukrainian intelligence official confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted the attack.[4] Ukrainian Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov stated that unspecified UAVs attacked the capital and warned that more UAV attacks against Russia will occur.[5] Russian opposition source The Insider reported that Russian authorities banned Russian television channels from covering the drone strikes, citing sources in Russian state media channels.[6] Russian milbloggers had a muted reaction to these strikes; some criticized the Russian air defenses for allowing the drones to penetrate that far into Moscow, while others argued that the informational victory of such attacks is minimal and short-lived.[7]

Likely Ukrainian forces targeted Russian military assets in occupied Crimea, temporarily disrupting Russian logistics through Crimea on July 24. The Russian MFA accused Ukrainian forces of attacking occupied Crimea with 17 UAVs, and the MFA claimed that Russian EW suppressed 14 UAVs while air defenses shot down three UAVs.[8] Crimean occupation head Sergey Aksyonov claimed that one UAV hit an ammunition depot in Dzhankoy Raion.[9] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces also launched three Storm Shadow missiles at an ammunition depot in Vilne (19km southwest of Dzhankoy) and a repair base in Novostepne (immediately south of Dzhankoy).[10] Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andyushchenko reported that strikes injured three Russian personnel at the Vesele military airfield (10km southwest of Dzhankoy) and reported additional explosions near Krasnohvardiiske (20km southwest of Dzhankoy).[11] Aksyonov temporarily suspended road traffic on the Dzhankoy-Simferopol highway as well as rail traffic through Dzhankoy Raion.[12] Aksyonov also announced the evacuation of all civilians within a five-kilometer radius of the strike area in Dzhankoy Raion.[13] Crimean occupation advisor Oleg Kryuchkov stated that occupation authorities will strictly monitor social media posts that could help Ukrainian forces identify targets in Crimea.[14]
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These attacks continue to expose Russian vulnerability and its difficulty in dealing with them.  The Moscow attacks do not appear to have strategic consequences beyond embarrassing the Russian Ministry of Defense and Putin.  The attacks in Crimea are aimed at Russian logistics, making it difficult for Russia to store equipment and weapons close to the front.  Ukraine is reclaiming territory taken earlier by Russia and making it hard for Russia to defend operations in areas it still controls within Ukraine.  The attacks on Moscow may have the effect of making Russian citizens fear they are becoming vulnerable.

See, also:

Ukraine carried out drone attack on Moscow, officials say

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The official from Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, an arm of its Ministry of Defense, said the agency was responsible for the operation that Russia described as a “terrorist attack of the Kiev regime,” using the Russian spelling for Ukraine’s capital.

The official was speaking on condition of anonymity because they had not received authorization to talk publicly about the incident.

Ukraine’s minister of Digital Transformation also claimed the attack. Mykhailo Fedorov, whose ministry oversees his country’s “Army of Drones” procurement plan, claimed there would be more strikes to come.

The drones struck two non-residential buildings in the Russian capital – including one near the Ministry of Defense headquarters – in Monday’s early hours, according to Russian authorities, who said they had “thwarted” the attack.

The strikes caused no serious damage or casualties, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Telegram Monday – but the incident will serve as a reminder of the range of Kyiv’s drones, as Ukraine seeks to bring the war closer to home for Russians.
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And:

 Ukraine's Armed Forces hit three Russian air defence systems and four command points – General Staff report

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The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out eight strikes on the clusters of Russian personnel, weapons and military equipment and four on Russian air defence systems. During the day, Ukraine’s air defence also destroyed three assault UAVs of the Shahed-136 type.

At the same time, units of Rocket Forces and Artillery hit four command points, three air defence systems, nine artillery systems in firing positions and four electronic warfare stations of the Russian forces.
...

And:

 Ukraine reports more advances in south, battles rage in east

The Ukrainian military has retaken over 12 square km (4.6 square miles) of territory in southern Ukraine in the past week in their counteroffensive against Russian forces, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on Monday.
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And:

 ‘It’s guns versus butter’: Russia on the brink as Putin’s war chest empties

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Today, cash reserves are dwindling. Oil revenues have nearly halved. Russia is losing its workforce as thousands flee conscription, are sent to fight or die on the front lines. Foreign investment has disappeared and the rouble has plunged. Inflation is gathering pace.

“The situation is changing quite rapidly and in the negative direction,” geopolitical risk adviser Oksana Antonenko said at an event at Chatham House.

“At the end of this year, it is very clear that Russia will be in a much worse macroeconomic situation than it was last year, and this is going to be a sustained trend.”

While Putin was clearly prepared for the initial economic impact of the war in Ukraine, the conflict has dragged on far longer than he expected. As a result, the economy is increasingly exposed to the ongoing fighting and Putin is running out of options.
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Last summer, in the early months of the war, the Kremlin was running a budget surplus of $28bn, according to the Kyiv School of Economics. By last month, the national account was in a deficit of $1.4bn.
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And:

 Hundreds of thousands of people fled Russia after it invaded Ukraine — and now the countries that took them in are seeing a boost in their economies

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The exodus of Russians started after many highly educated professionals — such as academics, finance, and tech workers — left Russia in the early days of the war, Insider's Jason Lalljee reported in March 2022. About six months later, there was another wave of departures after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial military mobilization for the Ukraine war on September 21.

By October, about 700,000 Russians had left the country, Reuters reported, citing Russian media — but the Kremlin rejected those numbers, saying it didn't have this data.

Many of these Russians landed in neighboring countries, setting up new lives and businesses, and ended up boosting the economies of these nations, the independent Russian media outlet Novaya Gazeta reported Friday.

The GDP of the South Caucasus — a region comprising Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia — grew by an outsize 7% in 2022, the World Bank found. This far outpaced the 5.6% growth that World Bank economists had predicted.
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And:

 Jade McGlynn: Russians cannot perpetuate their myth of Russia if they lose control over Ukraine

And:

 Russian inflation is raging at 60%, not the reported 3.6%, thanks to the ruble's 'freefall', top economist Steve Hanke says

And:

 Ukraine intel says Polish military would 'quickly' deal with any Wagner advance - intel agency