Putin's slow response to Wagner mutiny
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Putin and the Kremlin reportedly failed to respond promptly to the Wagner Group’s June 24 rebellion, leaving local Russian officials to make decisions concerning the group’s drive on Moscow. The Washington Post reported on July 25 that Ukrainian and European security officials stated that Putin did not issue orders for most of June 24 despite warnings from Russian security services about the likelihood of the rebellion at least two or three days beforehand.[25] Russian security services reportedly increased security at several strategic locations, including the Kremlin, in the days before the rebellion but took no other actions.[26] Regional Russian officials reportedly had to decide how to respond to the rebellion, and regional military and security officials were reportedly the ones that decided not to try to stop Wagner convoys by force.[27] The Kremlin’s and Putin’s alleged lack of response indicates that the Russian security apparatus had likely not prepared for a direct challenge to the Russian military leadership and likely did not have the capacity to quickly bring the rebellion to an end. The Kremlin is likely aware that its paralysis highlighted a degree of regime instability and appears to be consolidating Russia’s internal security apparatus in the Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) to prepare for further internal threats and to signal resolve.[28] Putin’s failure to act quickly also suggests that he is uncertain about his ability to rally the Russian elite around him and may indicate how factional internal Kremlin politics have become. A senior NATO official reportedly stated that unspecified senior Russian political figures in Moscow appeared ready to rally behind Prigozhin in the event that Wagner’s rebellion succeeded.[29] The Kremlin is likely trying to identify Russian elites who may have been prepared to side with Prigozhin and likely views regional officials’ decisions not to stop Wagner's advance as an indicator of disloyalty. Tula Oblast Governor and former head of Russia’s Special Operations Forces Alexei Dyumin has likely drawn further suspicion due to his previous affiliations with Prigozhin and his role in the negotiations that ended the rebellion.[30]
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Putin could have been cynical enough to use the rebellion as a means of exposing disloyal actors within the Russian regime. Or he could have been unable to respond quickly because he did not know who to trust. His failure to respond quickly to the mutiny could also have been for reasons we do not now know.
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Before and during Wagner Group's chaotic armed mutiny, President Vladimir Putin was far from the leader Russian elites expected him to be. "He just hid," Gennady Gudkov, a former colonel in the Russian security services who is now an opposition politician in exile, told The Washington Post.
Gudkov told the Post that Putin's inaction during Yevgeny Prigozhin's 24-hour rebellion severely damaged his reputation with top Russian officials.
"Putin showed himself to be a person who is not able to make serious, important and quick decisions in critical situations," he said, adding, "This was not understood by most of the Russian population. But it was very well understood by Putin's elite. He is no longer the guarantor of their security and the preservation of the system."
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Vladimir Putin 'Paralyzed' During Wagner Rebellion Despite Advance Warning: Report
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Yevgeny Prigozhin’s troops stunned the world earlier this summer when they took control of the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, mounting one of the biggest challenges ever to Putin’s leadership.
His mercenaries later advanced toward Moscow before pulling back after the Kremlin struck a deal with Prigozhin, brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, under which Prigozhin would move to Belarus in exchange for no charges for him and his soldiers. The mission of the short-lived rebellion was to reportedly oust the country’s military leadership, which Prigozhin has condemned.
Intelligence assessment shared with the Post revealed the Russian president was given a heads-up by his security services that Prigozhin was planning an attack “at least two or three days” before it happened.
Russian officials stepped up security measures at key buildings, including the Kremlin, and gave out more weapons, but otherwise took no sweeping action to prepare for the possible uprising.
European security officials also told the newspaper there were no orders from Russia’s top command during the first hours of the rebellion, meaning that local and military security chiefs didn’t mount a strong resistance to Wagner forces.
“The authoritarian system is formed in such a way that without a very clear command from the leadership, people don’t do anything,” a senior Ukrainian security official said.
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Putin scrambles to protect Africa ties after his ‘War on Grain’ in Ukraine; humiliated he can’t travel to S. A
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Politico, using evidence such as customs records, reported that Chinese manufacturers were delivering significant quantities of equipment to help Russia in its fight against Ukraine.
This includes enough protective gear to equip many of the troops Russia has mobilized for its invasion, as well as drones that can direct artillery fire and drop grenades on Ukrainian forces.
Chinese manufacturers have also sent thermal-optical sights that can target soldiers at night, the report said.
Overall, Russia has imported more than $100 million worth of drones from China since the start of this year, as well as $225 million in ceramics, which can be used in body armor, a 69% increase over 2022, Politico reported.
Chinese companies are exploiting a loophole to send this equipment: The gear is considered nonlethal and seen as dual use, which means it can have civilian as well as military applications.
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Russia Says It's Building Hibernating Drones That Can Sleep for Weeks Before Attacking
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The Joker FPV loitering munitions sleeps to hide from electronic countermeasures, according to a Google translation of a report by the government-affiliated TASS news agency. The drone is being produced to aid in the war against Ukraine, which is increasingly seeing the use of uncrewed aircraft.
“A tool for hibernating FPV drones of the Joker line and its top model, Ultimatum, was developed and implemented at the Central Design Bureau,” Dmitry Kuzyakin, the director general of Russia’s Center for Integrated Unmanned Solutions, told TASS. “A drone with a hibernator can take up a position for an attack and literally go into hibernation for several weeks. On the air, a sleeping drone does not manifest itself and attack.”
The Joker was designed to be placed on tall structures such as building rooftops to wait for the right moment to attack, Kuzyakin said. As the drone is pre-positioned close to the battlefield, the time it takes to hit its target is reduced to just a few seconds. The drone is also less affected by various countermeasures.
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