Ukraine still adding assets for planned offensive
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The Russian MoD claimed that it intercepted a Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile for the first time on May 15.[23] The MoD made this claim on the third day of four days of claimed Ukrainian Storm Shadow strikes against the Russian military assets in Luhansk City, roughly 80-100 kilometers behind the frontline.[24] A Russian milblogger expressed concern that Ukraine’s use of the missile can severely impact the situation on the frontlines because the only way Russian forces can counter the Storm Shadows is to destroy the aircraft carrying the missiles.[25]
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on May 14 and 15 confirming the provision of more Western military aid. The Ukrainian and French governments issued a joint statement on May 15 announcing that France will train and equip “several” Ukrainian battalions with “tens” of armored vehicles and light tanks, including the AMX-10RC.[30] The joint statement reiterated that the French government would continue providing political, financial, humanitarian, and military aid to Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” The UK government confirmed on May 15 that Sunak will announce another round of military aid to Ukraine, including the provision of unspecified long-range attack drones with ranges of over 200 kilometers, and will deliver them to Ukraine over the coming months.[31] Sunak announced that the UK will begin developing a program to train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets and will begin training an initial cohort of pilots over the summer.
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Ukraine is likely using the Storm Shadow missiles to shape the battlespace for future operations. It has had success in the past by attacking Russian logistics with HIMARS and it appears to be responding to Russia's attempt to pull back its logistic efforts further in the rear. The fact that Zelensky is still adding military aid from the West suggests that its current "offensive" operations may also be shaping the battle space for future operations. If the F-16s are to be used in the offensive it could take months to train the pilots in the operation of that valuable of an asset.
See, also:
Britain to send Ukraine suicide drones with twice the range of Himars
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The kamikaze drones have a range of more than 125 miles – more than twice as far as the highly successfully Himars – and complement the long-range Storm Shadow missiles the UK donated to Ukraine last week.
Last Saturday, Ukraine fired the cruise missiles for the first time, hitting a Russian supply depot and a military command centre 80 miles behind the front line.
Defence sources conceded to the Telegraph that the drones were “one-way”, adding that they had a “primary goal to carry munitions”.
“They’ve been rapidly developed and adapted at significantly lower costs than others,” they said, adding that “they have a comparable effect to an artillery shell”.
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And:
Ukrainian military hit Russian ammunition storage point – General Staff
During the day, the Ukrainian army hit an ammunition storage point, a control point, two areas of concentration of manpower, three artillery units in firing positions and two electronic warfare stations of the Russian troops.
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And:
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"We are not seeing troops being withdrawn from Zaporizhzhia or Kherson oblasts. Yes, they’re making [certain] motions: taking away some things, evacuating some people, looting, but we are not seeing military units being withdrawn. In Enerhodar, for example, they are taking away everything they can – cars, medical equipment – but they do not withdraw. They are clearly aware that there will be fighting there."
Details: Cherniak has said that Russian troops were preparing for defence, reinforcing their existing defence fortifications and constructing new ones, because they know they do not have enough force to go on the offensive.
He added that the main goal of the Russian occupation forces is to hold their current positions.
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And:
Russia's flanks 'collapse' in Bakhmut due to poorly trained soldiers
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Dominic Nicholls, Associate Editor of Defence, gave updates on a particularly busy 48 hours in Ukraine:The British Ministry of Defence, over the weekend, said that Russia's 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade had withdrawn, "in bad order" from Russia's southern flank. Certainly Russian flanks around Bakhmut are under extreme pressure.He goes into more detail into why this might be:The flanks are mainly thought to be regular Russian forces, recently mobilised forces, poorly poorly trained, poorly led, poorly equipped. There are suggestions that even those regulars are now being bolstered by convicts....
A lot of pushing and shoving going on there, but it does seem as if those flanks that seem to come from the regular Russian forces with lower morale, not so well trained etc, they seem to be seeding ground, which will then cause some right old headaches for Vagner in the middle.
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And:
On Sunday, 14 May, Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive operations on the Kupiansk front. Ukrainian forces also repelled numerous Russian assaults near Marinka. Fighting for the city of Bakhmut continues.
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And:
Everyone knows that it is supplies of Western weapons and munitions, the great bulk of them from the USA, which are letting the embattled Ukrainians resist a brutal invasion by Russian forces. Not everyone has fully taken aboard the fact that it is supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the bulk again from the USA, which have permitted the rest of Europe to resist Putin’s energy warfare and keep the lights on. Continued US support will be just as vital this winter, and probably for some years to come.
Last year, Europe imported 56 billion cubic meters (bcm) of US LNG, more than double the previous year’s level – and the White House has pledged that the US will send “at least 50 bcm” to Europe this year. The US also supplied half of the UK’s LNG in 2022, replacing Qatar as its largest LNG import source.
These massive shipments of gas have helped Europe and the UK stay afloat, but they have come at a cost for US consumers. In May 2022, US natural gas prices hit a 13-year high, reaching $8.78 (€8.32) per million British thermal units (MMBTU). US natural gas futures are now lower but remain volatile as geopolitical concerns impact market sentiment.
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Some of the price increases in the US are also the result of Biden's restrictions on drilling and his attacks on the fossil fuel business. Trump warned the Europeans of their vulnerability during his administration and offered to supply them with LNG and was laughed at. Biden has also been draining the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as he pushes his Big Green agenda.
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