Russian leaders in fantasy land
Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s attempts to promote a potential anti-Western coalition. The new Foreign Policy Concept paints the West as an anti-Russian and internationally destabilizing force to a far greater extent than Russia’s previous 2016 Foreign Policy Concept and explicitly states that the US and its “satellites” have unleashed a hybrid war aimed at weakening Russia.[1] The new document also heavily stresses Russia's goal of creating a multipolar world order and subordinates under that goal Russia’s broad foreign policy objectives, which include ending the United States’ supposed dominance in world affairs.[2] The document asserts that most of humanity is interested in constructive relations with Russia and that a desired multi-polar world will give opportunities to non-Western world powers and regional leading countries.[3] Putin previously used meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping on March 20 through 22 to increase attempts to rhetorically rally the rest of the world against the West, and the new document likely aims to support the Kremlin’s attempts to intensify proposals to non-aligned countries to form a more coherent anti-Western bloc.[4] ISW assessed that Putin’s proposal to form an anti-Western bloc during Xi’s visit to Moscow was not positively received as Xi refused to align China with Putin’s envisioned geopolitical conflict with the West.[5] Russia’s declining economic power and degraded military effort in Ukraine continue to offer little incentive to countries to express serious interest in the proposal. The Kremlin likely decided to release the new Foreign Policy Concept on the eve of assuming the presidency of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in order to set informational conditions for future rhetorical efforts at the UN aimed at forming an anti-Western coalition.[6] ISW previously assessed that Russia will likely weaponize its presidency of the UNSC as a method of Russian power projection.[7]
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to use high-profile public statements to portray Belarus as a sovereign state despite its current de-facto occupation by Russian forces. Lukashenko reiterated boilerplate rhetoric about how he is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s equal partner in defense of Russia and Belarus by explicitly painting Belarus as the target of a Western hybrid war – a narrative Lukashenko has promoted since 2020.[8] Lukashenko stated that he and Putin mutually agreed to deploy Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus to protect Belarus’ ”sovereignty and independence.”[9] Lukashenko also stated that he and Putin mutually decided to partially deploy elements of the Union State’s Regional Grouping of Troops (RGV) to an unspecified area.[10] Lukashenko stated that nobody should worry that Russia ”captured something” in Belarus and stated the Russian forces training in Belarus under Belarusian officers are subordinated to Belarusian forces’.[11] Lukashenko likely seeks to use the narrative that Belarus is a fully sovereign state and Russia’s equal partner in the Union State so that he can use informational leverage to request that Russian forces leave Belarus after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine concludes. Lukashenko also stated that he supports peace negotiations “as soon as possible” and offered to help mediate negotiations.[12]
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There is no interest in the West in occupying Russia or Belarus. There is strong resistance to the Russian occupation of Ukraine and other countries, and that seems to be Putin's real problem. Putin's real problem is that he wants to reconstitute the old Soviet Union where he would dominate Eastern Europe. As long as he has that attitude he will find himself in conflict with NATO countries.
See, also:
Russian ‘great offensive’ a flop, Ukrainian intelligence reports failure
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“Now we see that the Russian army has proved incapable of conducting strategic offensive operations,” Chernyak said.
“The so-called ‘great offensive,’ which was promoted by propaganda for several months, turned out to be a flop for Russia – they did not achieve any significant results.”
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Putin and Wagner lose ‘substantial manpower in Bakhmut fight’
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Ukraine's Ground Forces releases video of Russian UAVs being destroyed on Bakhmut front
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Syrskyi added that despite constant artillery fire, the Ukrainian military has learned to interact with electronic warfare units, quickly detect small and inconspicuous occupiers’ UAVs in the air, and hit them accurately.
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The First World War tactic helping Ukraine fight a modern conflict
Every soldier carries an entrenching tool in their battle order. Unwieldy and inefficient, these lightweight folding spades seem designed to strip skin from your palms and the insides of your fingers. Using them is the definition of backbreaking labour. Yet they are almost revered amongst the infantry and kept clean, oiled and sharp, ready for use.
This is because of one very simple truth about trenches: they are the lowest common denominator of warfare. When all of your technology is spent or neutered – and particularly when you are unable to move through, or around, the enemy firepower arranged against you – trench systems will proliferate. Soldiers will dig, because compacted earth is one of the best absorbers of high explosives there is. In a trench you will be completely protected from small arms and, depending on the design of the trench – and except for direct hits – substantially protected from artillery, mortars and air attack. In a well-built trench, you will live to fight another day.
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Russia says Ukraine ceasefire now would not achieve Moscow's goals
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"In terms of Ukraine, nothing is changing, the special military operation is continuing because today that is the only means in front of us to achieve our goals," Peskov said.
He said parts of a plan proposed by China for peace in Ukraine were "unrealisable at the moment, due to the unwillingness - or rather the inability - of the Ukrainian side to disobey their supervisors and commanders".
That was a reference to Moscow's claims - unsupported by evidence - that Ukraine's Western backers have ordered Kyiv not to pursue a ceasefire.
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“Regenerating counter-battery radar fleets is likely a key priority for both sides, but Russia will likely struggle because the systems rely on supplies of high-tech electronics which have been disrupted by sanctions,” the UK Defense Intelligence report said.
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Southern Command: Explosions in Crimean Dzhankoi hinder Russia's transfer of weapons
Recent explosions in the Crimean town of Dzhankoi have restricted Russia's ability to transport military equipment and ammunition, particularly Kalibr missiles, said Ukraine's Southern Command spokesperson Natalia Humeniuk.
Late on March 20, an explosion in Dzhankoi destroyed Russian Kalibr cruise missiles during their railway transportation, according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Main Intelligence Directorate. Russian occupying authorities in Crimea claimed it was a drone attack.
"They continue trying (to restore the railway connection), work is still ongoing, but a full-fledged railway connection, which would allow them to transfer heavy equipment, has not yet been restored," Humeniuk said on national television, cited by Ukrainska Pravda news outlet.
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Russia suffered irreparable losses during Kyiv offensive last year, says General Pavlyuk
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“Companies lost 50-70% of their personnel as killed and wounded – these are huge losses, especially considering that elite units of the occupier’s army were involved, the most combat-ready ones on which the enemy had high hopes,” the deputy minister said.
“They did not replace the losses they suffered in Kyiv Oblast, and are unlikely to restore such a level of their own personnel training anytime soon,” he said.
“Thanks to the coordination and cooperation of the military leadership, which was in the direction of Kyiv, Ukraine managed not only to stop, but also to inflict huge losses on the enemy. And to force the enemy to leave previously captured territories and abandon plans to capture Kyiv Oblast.”
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