Russian wartime politics
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Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin may be using his influence in Russia’s mainstream media landscape to present himself as a contender in Russia’s 2024 presidential elections. Prigozhin’s own Federal News Agency published an interview that Prigozhin conducted with Russian journalists from Russia Today, RIA Novosti and Federal News Agency on March 14.[9] This interview was noteworthy for its unique format--during the interview Prigozhin seemed to mimic the way that Russian President Vladimir Putin films his choreographed public meetings, either to mock Putin quietly or to suggest subtly that Prigozhin could become Russian president like Putin. The choreography and staging of Prigozhin’s interview places Prigozhin in the camera’s frame at Prigozhin’s desk across from his audience in the same way that Putin’s filmed meetings and photo ops usually do.[10] This film style is unusual for Prigozhin, as Prigozhin’s public video statements typically do not employ such a sterile format; Prigozhin has usually opted to film himself with wide shots on battlefields or in dynamic but staged videos that strive to appear candid and gritty.[11] Prigozhin also used this interview to reiterate his previous arguments about the need to instill hardline ideology in Russian fighters and insinuate that the Russian Ministry of Defense is deliberately depriving the Wagner Group of artillery ammunition.[12]
Prigozhin may seek to parody Putin’s cinematography style as part of a larger trolling campaign to attack the Kremlin or draw tacit parallels between Prigozhin and the office of the Russian presidency. Prigozhin has previously insinuated that he could replace Putin. Prigozhin made a sarcastic announcement on March 11 that he will run for the Ukrainian presidency in 2024 — a statement that a prominent Kremlin-linked Russian scholar argued implicitly promoted a narrative that Prigozhin would run in Russia’s presidential elections which are also scheduled for 2024.[13] Prigozhin directly attacked Putin’s presidential administration on January 18 and insinuated that some officials working there are traitors who want Russia to lose the war in Ukraine — one of Prigozhin’s boldest attacks against the Kremlin to date.[14] Prigozhin also denied the Kremlin’s claims that Russia is fighting NATO in Ukraine and questioned whether there are actually Nazis in Ukraine as the Kremlin — and specifically Putin — constantly claims.[15] Prigozhin’s recent behavior — regardless of its intent — is advancing a narrative among Russian society that Prigozhin has larger political aspirations in Russia. Former Russian officer and convicted war criminal Igor Girkin (one of Prigozhin’s critics) joked on March 26 that Prigozhin is like Julius Caesar, except that Julius Caesar first achieved military victories before agitating for his political advancement — likely referring to Prigozhin’s failure to deliver on his reported promise to capture Bakhmut by September 2022.[16]
High-ranking Russian officials continue a campaign begun in December 2022 to set domestic conditions for a protracted war both in private and in public. The Guardian, citing anonymous internal sources, reported on March 28 that Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told a group of Russian political and cultural elite that “things will get much harder” and that the current situation (in reference to the war) “will take a very, very, long time” during a private dinner in December 2022.[17] Peskov’s reported warning supports ISW’s assessment that Russian authorities have been preparing multiple aspects of Russian society for a protracted war through careful setting of information conditions and engagement of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) since the end of 2022.[18] Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu relatedly visited artillery shell production facilities in Chelyabinsk and Kirov oblasts on March 28 and claimed that Russian ammunition production has increased significantly over the past year, promising that production will increase a further seven to eight times for certain unspecified artillery products by the end of the year.[19] Shoigu’s visit to artillery factories is the latest in a slew of choreographed visits to DIB facilities by various Russian officials and is part of a concerted effort to present the Russian DIB as effective in advance of a protracted war effort.[20]
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There does not appear to be any anti-war candidates at this point despite the fact that the war has been poorly run and has been a financial as well as a military disaster. Previous stories indicate a campaign to suppress any dissent from the war among those who have not already fled the country. Prigozin does not look like much of an improvement over Putin whose wartime leadership has been a serial disaster for Russia and its troops. The realization of a protracted war is necessary because of the failure of the original war plan and the ongoing failures in Ukraine.
See, also:
Russian regiment loses ‘large proportion’ of tanks in ‘ill-disciplined attack’ on frontline
A Russian formation created for the Ukraine war has suffered heavy losses due to a lack of discipline and low morale, with one regiment losing a “large proportion of its tanks,” according to British intelligence.
The 10th Tank Regiment is part of the 3rd Army Corps, the first major new Russian formation formed to support the invasion.
In recent weeks, Moscow has switched its focus to Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, hoping to encircle the Ukrainian troops defending it after having so far failed to capture nearby Bakhmut.
But its 10th Tank Regiment has lost significant numbers of tanks in order to make only marginal gains.
Russia is believed to have lost at least 1,900 tanks since Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine in February last year, according to Western analysts.
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The formation has reportedly been dogged by ill-discipline and poor morale.
Soldiers from the newly-formed 3rd Army Corps are often drunk, use obsolete weapons and received poor training in Belarus, according to Ukrainian sources.
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Russia’s power in eastern Europe has been ebbing away for years, but the invasion of Ukraine has rapidly accelerated the process – even with regimes that Putin previously saw as close allies. The longer the war goes on without victory for the Kremlin, the stronger the political and public impetus will become for countries like Serbia and Georgia to cast off what’s left of suffocating Russian influence.
The enormity of Putin’s strategic mistake in invading Ukraine encompasses more than just NATO expansion and the destruction of his vital energy stranglehold on Europe. It is also, slowly but surely, costing him his few remaining European friends. Putting nuclear weapons in Belarus is a desperate attempt to safeguard his closest alliance.
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Russia Caught Red-Handed Making Fake Video of Ukrainian Attack on Woman and Child
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Unfortunately for Russia’s diplomats, if the overacting in the clip wasn’t enough of a red flag, the video was almost immediately geolocated to an area deep in Russian-controlled Donetsk. Moreover, dash-cams have been banned on Ukrainian territory during the war.
Even pro-Kremlin Telegram channels admitted the video was a clumsy fake.
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Russia suffers heavy losses in frontal attacks near Avdiivka – UK Intelligence
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Numerous open-source accounts suggested that 3rd Army Corps has been particularly dogged by problems with ill-discipline and poor morale. Despite a likely period of training in Belarus, the formation still appears to display limited combat effectiveness.
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2,000 Russian officers killed in Ukraine, OSINT researchers say
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According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russia has lost about 171,730 troops in Ukraine, including 570 on March 27. As of February, Western officials and the U.S.-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated Russia's total losses at 200,000-250,000.
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Russia supplies Iran with cyber weapons in exchange for drones and ammunition, WSJ says
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WSJ’s sources said Russia has supplied Iran with surveillance and intelligence gathering equipment, hidden cameras, and lie detectors. Furthermore, the sources alleged Moscow may have even supplied sophisticated software that would enable the Iranian regime to hack into phones of dissidents and opposition activists – something Tehran is very much in need of, given months-long riots it grappled with in 2022.
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Military briefing: why Ukraine wants to neutralise Russia’s bases in Crimea
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The footage shows the 21-year-old soldier destroying a Russian BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) and killing several invaders in 30 minutes of combat. Predator uses various weapons [an RPG-7 grenade launcher, machine gun and assault rifle] and throws grenades at the Russian troops from his foxhole.
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