Previously safe Dem seats vulnerable in 2022

 Axios:

The midterm outlook for House Democrats is so bleak that even members in districts President Biden won by 10 to 15 points are in danger of losing their seats, according to election experts.

Driving the news: The Cook Political Report just revised its fall House forecast to a net Republican gain of 20 to 35 seats. Cook shifted 10 races in Republicans' direction and two toward Democrats, with 35 D-held seats now labeled "tossup" or worse.

Zoom out: This year was always going to be difficult for Democrats — historical trends suggest the president's party typically loses seats.

  • 23 House Democrats have announced they won't seek re-election, compared to just 11 Republicans.
  • President Biden's approval has been hovering in the low 40s for several months, with inflation driving down his popularity.
  • Polling shows Republicans are winning the generic congressional ballot (Would you rather vote for a Democrat or a Republican?) by an average of 1.9 points — and they have still room to grow.

What to watch: "The most competitive states this cycle are those where a court or commission drew a congressional map as opposed to a partisan one," Cook's U.S. House editor Dave Wasserman tells Axios.

  • He points to races in New York, Michigan, Arizona and California: "That's where you’re going to see a lot of money spent."

Between the lines: Wasserman says the situation is especially perilous for House Democrats facing tight races in "orphan states," where there's no competitive statewide election driving turnout.

  • Those orphan states include California, Indiana, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, Texas, Virginia, Washington — and arguably New York, Wasserman tells Axios.
  • The only path to survival for those Democrats may be to go "scorched earth" against still-undefined Republican challengers — which, at this point in the race, includes essentially all first-time candidates.

The bottom line: Some of the most competitive House races are playing out across several battleground states with huge impacts on the 2024 presidential election, like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nevada.

...

If Democrats are in trouble that is good news for America.  The more of them defeated the better.  They have been an absolute disaster from President down to House and Senate operations since 2020. The only two Democrats who acted responsibly were Manchin and Sinema.

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