Pollsters admit they overrated Democrat turnout in 2020

 Epoch Times:

A group of top Democratic Party pollsters released a public statement Tuesday acknowledging “major errors” in their 2020 polling, while venturing several theories they believe may account for the blunders.

“In 2020, our industry saw major errors and failed to live up to our own expectations,” said the statement by ALG Research, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, GBAO Strategies, Global Strategy Group, and Normington Petts.

Most preelection polls ahead of the November election overstated then-presidential candidate Joe Biden’s lead over then-President Donald Trump, and in some states incorrectly predicted that Biden would win or that the race would be close. This sparked critical post-election media commentary, with some asserting that “polling seems to be irrevocably broken,” while others argued that “the polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up.”

Polling was in the spotlight ahead of the November election, with The Epoch Times reporting on questions about whether the so-called “shy voter” phenomenon was undercounting support for Trump.

An average of 2020 presidential election polls on the eve of Nov. 3, compiled by FiveThirtyEight, showed Biden with an 8.4 percentage point lead over Trump, with the actual results later shown to be around 4.4 points. Not only that, but in Republican states Trump fared better than the polls predicted by a stunning 6.4 points.

“Every one of us thought Democrats would have a better Election Day than they did,” the five polling companies wrote in the memo. “So what went wrong?”

They floated the proposition that several factors may have contributed to the 2020 polling errors, “and there is not a single, definitive answer—which makes solving the problem especially frustrating.”

Broadly, they blame errors in both turnout and measurement, with measurement “probably the larger culprit in most places.”
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The pollsters found that their models overestimated Democratic turnout relative to Republican turnout.

“Among low propensity voters—people who we expect to vote rarely—the Republican share of the electorate exceeded expectations at four times the rate of the Democratic share,” they said, meaning that—again—pollsters underestimated turnout among rural and white non-college voters.
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I think the mainstream media also worked to fool the polls.  The media acted as if the election was a foregone conclusion like they did in 2016.  They also underrated Trump as a campaigner in both elections, and also underrated the enthusiasm for him.  They are still doing it as are major corporations in this country who are hostile to Trump voters. 

Another factor is that many of them do not understand there is a large group of voters who vote against Democrats.  The pollsters and the media tend to focus on those who were hostile to Trump like they were and missed the hostility toward Democrats.  I think many corporate CEOs are also making that mistake right now.