Inside the polls shows Biden in trouble

 Monica Showalter:

...

The innards of these polls actually show a lot of trouble. 

For one thing, independent support for Biden is falling.  RedState points out that the big weak spot for Biden among independents is his atrocious handling of the border.  The Fox News poll's question about whether security is better or worse or the same at the border showed that 46% of voters felt that border security in 2021 is worse than two years ago, a sharp spike from the 17% who said that in 2018.  Independents accounted for much of that fall.

For another, these pollsters oversampled Democrats.  Most showed large margins of registered Democrats sampled that didn't coincide with the percentages of voters who voted from both parties in 2020.  That breakdown should have been 36% registered Republicans and 37% registered Democrats.  It wasn't.  The pollsters polled as if Democrats amounted to as much as 50% of the majority.

NewsBusters pointed out that with all this oversampling of Democrats to rig the results, they still didn't get the rosy report they wanted, which suggests things could be very bad, indeed.

"Partisanship" was blamed for the trouble by at least one television pundit, which could mean several things.

One, Biden is the most partisan president in history, governing as a radical far-left Corbynite, seeking to dismantle the Constitution, the public fisc, the Courts, America's energy independence, and the voting system itself.  That's going down particularly badly among independents, but also includes Republicans.

Two, Biden has pledged "unity" and done exactly the opposite of what he got the public to focus on.  He's initiated transgender bathrooms, dismantled the border, triggered a border surge, introduced wokester education, fomented racial hate, and attempted to smear any state attempting reasonable measures to ensure voter rights and ballot integrity.  All of those things are unpopular except among the radical left crazies.

A third piece of news is related to this partisanship/unity issue that comes via email from Raghavan Mayur and his TIPPInsights.com site. The IBD/TIPP poll the firm produces is America's most accurate pollster.

The link can be read here* -- and it has a lot of useful charts. I will paste in some regarding his newly released TIPP Unity Index and summarize.  He writes:

The TIPP Unity Index registered a somber reading of 37.8, reflecting the country's high level of division in April.

A whopping 61 percent believe the country is divided, while only 33 percent believe it is united.

The Unity Index

TechnoMetrica, in its tradition of out-of-box thinking, developed the Unity Index, a barometer of the country's unity, based on the question:

In general, would you say the United States is Very United, Somewhat United, Not Very United, or Not At All United?

He found this:

In April, thirty of the 36 demographic groups we track believe the country is divided.

The demographic groups that believe the country is united are in the 25 to 44 age group, urban residents, those earning $75K or more, Democrats, and those with a college degree or higher.

On the other end, the groups that feel extreme division in the country are 65 or older, rural residents, independents, some college education, and Republicans.

Where was the discord highest?  You guessed it: on presidential leadership, where the standard deviation came in at 12.4.  Other issues above the mean were "direction of country," "morals and ethics," and "standing in the world."  The areas below the mean were "national outlook," "economic outlook," "quality of life," and "financial stress."

...

I am not feeling the "unity" either.  I think Biden is listening to too many radicals on the left who think unity means everyone must agree with them or else.  They seem to be living in their own closets away from the real world.

It should also be noted that most pollsters got the 2020 election mostly wrong by oversampling Democrats.  They predicted a landslide and a gain of House seats for Democrats.  They have been scratching their head about what went wrong and then they come out with a garbage poll that oversamples Democrats by a significant amount. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Should Republicans go ahead and add Supreme Court Justices to head off Democrats

Washington Post: Some Democrats eye adding more justices to the Supreme Court to change its ideological bent The once-remote idea has gained the attention of liberals angered by the GOP push to remake the federal courts. Probably the easy way to defeat this court-packing scheme is for Trump to propose doing the same thing now.  It would lead to Democrat denunciations and claims that it would be wrong, thereby blowing up any attempt by them in the unfortunate event of Democrats winning a presidential election.
Read more

29 % of companies say they are unlikely to keep insurance after Obamacare

Conn Carroll: A new survey of 368 midsize to large companies found that 29% of them are considering terminating their active employee health care plans when Obamacare is full implemented in 2014. Only 71% of employers surveyed said they did not expect to drop their health coverage, while 20% said they did not know and 9% said they were planning to exit. The latest survey, conducted by Towers Watson, echoes an ealier survey by McKinsey & Co. finding that 30% of private-sector employers were planning to drop their employee health insurance coverage by 2014. When the Congressional Budget Office crunched Obamacare's spending numbers, they estimated that only 7% of employees currently covered by employer-sponsored plans would lose their plans. ... This means the cost of the health care fiasco will be hundreds of billions more than estimated by the CBO and Congressional Democrat. It is also clear that Obama's pledge that you could keep your health care plan if you wanted t
Read more

Bin Laden's concern about Zarqawi's remains

James Robbins: ... Bin Laden suggests that President Bush should allow Zarqawi’s body to be returned to his family in Jordan, but this is a matter that is up to the Jordanian government, which so far has not shown much interest in facilitating a homecoming. Bin Laden mocks King Abdullah II, calling him a Coalition minion, and asking “w hat scares you about Abu Musab after he’s dead? You know that his funeral, if allowed to happen, would be a huge funeral showing the extent of sympathy with the mujahedin.” A large crowd would definitely turn out, though most people would be on hand to demonstrate their anger and disgust. Last November’s hotel bombings in Amman , masterminded by Zarqawi, are still fresh in people’s memory, and mentioning them to Jordanians has the same visceral impact as memory of the 9/11 attacks does here. Jordan has adopted a zero-tolerance policy towards those who choose to mourn the country’s least favorite son, and four opposition members of parliament who paid con
Read more