Getting sides to recognize new reality in Iraq

Ralph Peters:

'AL Qaeda's worn out their welcome," Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno told The Post.

Probably the tallest, and just maybe the toughest, man in Iraq, the Rockaway native also has a vigorous intellect at odds with the stereotype of generals.

Even though he looks like he could've had a parallel career in the World Wrestling Federation.

In a forthright interview with The Post yesterday, the commanding general of the Multinational Corps-Iraq - the man who leads the day-to-day fight in support of Gen. David Petraeus - noted that, while foreign terrorists remain a threat, al Qaeda's been wounded so deeply by the Sunni Arab shift against them that he now feels other issues take priority.

"First, I worry about Shia extremism and Iranian interference, which is increasing. In the long term, Iraqis won't allow Iranians to take over their country - but, in the short term, I'm worried about Basra and the Port of Um Qasr."

Odierno, whose limbs stretched out from a big, black-leather chair, folded his hands. "Second, I'm worried about the development of the government of Iraq. They have to solve their own problems - we can't solve them."

The hands broke apart and one rose slightly, as if in warning. "The Shia have not yet recognized that they've actually won. . . They need to get past that and move toward reconciliation."

The general notes that their parliamentary form of government is proving difficult for the Iraqis to operate, since it requires levels of cooperation not necessarily inherent in the culture. Blunt and brutally honest, he refuses to sugarcoat the problems he sees.

STILL, Odierno describes himself as a "cautious optimist," noting that "I do see continued improvement in the Iraqi security forces, especially in the last eight or nine months - but we still need to support them. Ultimately, security here will depend upon our ability to train and develop the police."

While the police are improving markedly in Sunni Arab and Kurdish areas and lagging among Shias, Odierno just thinks that will take time. "In Nasiriyah and Hilla, we already have good cops. In my mind, we can get there."

...

ASKED about Muqtada al-Sadr, Odierno responded: "He's a figurehead . . . erratic in his behavior . . . unpredictable. . . but he's the individual who reaches out to the Shia nobody else reaches out to. The problem is that he's lost control of some parts of his movement, the Special Groups and others - many of whom are funded by Iran.

"We need to separate those elements and kill or capture them - while working with those closer to the mainstream."

...

WHAT would be Gen. Odierno's ideal scenario for the future of Iraq? "A country whose leaders are representative of the people and a government that provides security for all of its people. A state that's a responsible regional actor and a partner for the U.S. in the fight against terrorists."

...

That is pretty much how the military has been defining victory in Iraq for several years. Gen. Odierno was criticized by some authors for his approach when he led the 4th ID during the initial operations in Iraq. Peters thinks this was unfair and I do too. He has worked well with Gen. Petraeus and he recognizes that different approaches are necessary in different parts of Iraq. As I have noted before the aggressive approach in the past set the table for the successes of today. We also need to remember that the enemy in Iraq reacts to those successes and we have to be able to get inside his decision loop and not allow him to execute his strategy.

What happened in early 2006, is that we did not move quickly to stop the enemy's chaos strategy which permitted sectarian violence in Iraq and a loss of support for the war in the US.