Republicans likely to expand current majority in 2026

 DC Daily Journal:

...

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) unleashed a powerful signal of confidence this week, unveiling a poll that positions House Republicans to not only defend but expand their majority in the 2026 midterms. Conducted from April 13-18, and first reported by Punchbowl News, the survey paints a vivid picture of a political landscape tilting decisively in favor of the GOP, fueled by voter frustration with Democratic missteps and a resurgent America First agenda.

Shared initially at a House Republican Conference meeting, the poll draws a stark contrast between the current political climate and the lead-up to the 2018 midterms, when Democrats rode a so-called “blue wave” during President Donald Trump’s first term. Back then, Democrats enjoyed a commanding six-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot in April 2017. Today, the NRCC’s findings reveal Democrats clinging to a mere one-point edge, a dramatic shift that signals waning support for their agenda.

“Unlike in 2017, voters today are turning away from Democrats’ failed leadership and are rallying behind Republican solutions on the issues that matter most,” states the NRCC’s memo on the poll. This sentiment is palpable in the data, which shows Republicans gaining ground on key voter concerns. The memo emphasizes that House Republicans are “not just on offense and starting the cycle on a strong footing to grow our majority; Republicans are leading the charge and setting the terms of the fight.”

A particularly striking finding emerges in the 13 Democratic-held districts carried by Trump in the 2024 presidential election. In these battlegrounds, Republicans lead the generic ballot by two points, a clear sign of GOP momentum. The NRCC describes this as a “strong indicator” of the party’s growing influence in areas critical to controlling the House. With Trump’s enduring appeal in these regions, Republicans are capitalizing on a unified message that resonates with voters.
...

Recent polling has also underestimated GOP support.  Trump won easily in 2024 despite polling showing Kamala Harris with a lead.  I never thought those 2024 polls were in the ballpark because Harris was such a terrible candidate, and the demonization of Trump was no longer as effective as it was in 2020.   What the Democrats have going for them is a bias media that supports Democrats by a wide margin.

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