Putin to face political dilemma with call-up of more troops
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Putin may find himself facing another dilemma after another wave or two of reserve call-ups, as the pool of reservists appropriate for front-line fighting is finite. The Russian conscription system generates roughly 260,000 new soldiers each year, drawn in two semi-annual call-ups. The combination of the pre-war reserve call-up, the recruitment efforts that drew partly on reservists, and the partial reserve call-up of September have likely made significant inroads into the available reserve manpower in the age groups and with the experience appropriate to replace losses in front-line combat units. Putin may need to consider expanding conscript service itself, drawing a higher proportion of young Russian men against their will into military service each year. But demographics do not favor such an approach. Roughly 800,000 young men turn 18 each year in Russia.[42] Expanding conscription much beyond the 260,000 of those already forced into military service risks not only taking young men with physical conditions unsuitable for war but also beginning to pull too many young men out of the Russian economy, which Putin is simultaneously attempting to put on a war footing.
The specter of limitless Russian manpower is a myth. Putin has already been forced to make difficult and suboptimal choices to offset the terrible losses his war has inflicted on the Russian military, and he will face similarly difficult choices in 2023 if he persists in his determination to use military force to impose his will on Ukraine and the West. Russia can mobilize more manpower, and Putin will likely do so rather than give up. But the costs to Putin and Russia of the measures he will likely need to take at this point will begin to mount rapidly.
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The high casualty rates from earlier operations have gone through much of Russia's trained troops. Putin is now scrambling to pull together forces with limited training and to some extent limited desire to participate.
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According to him, "if the West manages to make the Russian Federation collapse and to assume control of its fragments," the Russian people may not survive as a nation.
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Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die
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Hundreds of thousands of working age Russians have left the country or died on the battlefield since Putin declared war on Ukraine. Ukraine says its soldiers have killed more than 100,000 Russians, while the Kremlin puts it closer to 10,000.
The numbers may be disputed, but the trends are clear: Russia is facing a demographic time bomb that will make it harder to wage war and, in the long run, keep its ailing economy going.
Sending waves of young men onto the battlefield, compounded by emigration, will result in tens of thousands of fewer births and hasten an already long-term decline in birth rates.
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Putin is too confident he can grind down Ukraine, CIA director says
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Burns said he judged Putin as “quite determined” to continue prosecuting the war, despite the casualties, tactical shortcomings and economic and reputational damage to Russia.
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Burns also said Putin was underestimating U.S. resolve to support Ukraine, saying that it has been his experience that the Russian leader’s view is that Americans have “attention deficit disorder and we’ll move on to some other issue eventually.”
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Ukrainian defense forces destroy over 650 Russian cruise missiles, 610 drones since mid-September
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However, Russia is making limited progress on the frontlines in Ukraine. Earlier in February, UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Russia had deployed 97% of its entire army in Ukraine but was still struggling to make any major advances.
Russia's military campaign has been marked by major blunders. Last October, Insider reported that Russia had become Ukraine's biggest supplier of weapons after Ukrainian advances yielded a massive haul of abandoned Russian military kit.
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Russia’s New Offensive Sends Conscripts Into the Teeth of Ukraine’s Lines
A month into the campaign, Russian forces have barely budged despite forays by small units in fields, pine forests and ruined towns.
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