The Belarus 'threat' to Ukraine

 Strategy Page:

When it comes to the Ukraine War, Belarus is definitely a Frenemy (friend and enemy) of southern neighbor Ukraine and a hostage to eastern neighbor Russia. Belarus only has about a fifth of Ukraine’s population and a less vibrant and aggressive form of nationalism. Technically Belarus is an ally of Russia in its war in Ukraine, yet most Belarusians are pro-Ukraine. Some have actively helped Ukraine from inside Belarus while a few have crossed the border and joined the Ukrainian Foreign Legion.

The ruler of Belarus since 1994 is Alexander Lukashenko, a veteran communist official in the Soviet Union until 1991. Lukashenko was active in the three-year process to create a new constitution and hold elections. Lukashenko won the first presidential election, which was his only legitimate victory. After that he rigged the elections in one way or another to remain in power. He developed close ties with Russia and Vladimir Putin but refused to back Russian demands that he allow closer links with Russia that would eventually make Belarus part of Russia. This resistance was tolerated because Lukashenko was otherwise an ally of Russia and used Russian assistance to block efforts in Belarus to reduce Russian influence. This helped Lukashenko remain in power but also enabled Russia to stage part of the 2022 invasion from Belarus. Belarussian railway workers sabotaged the rail lines into Ukraine and that played a role in the defeat of Russia’s northern offensive into Ukraine and attempt to seize the Ukrainian capital Kyiv. Eventually some of the railway workers responsible were identified, prosecuted and sent to prison. Most Belarussians considered these railway workers heroes. Popular attitudes like this made Lukashenko even more dependent on Russian protection. This included stationing Russian troops in Belarus and Lukashenko allowing Russian troops to be trained in Belarus.

Despite all this Lukashenko refused to send his troops to join Russian forces inside Ukraine. The main obstacle to that happening is that Russia wants to annex Belarus as well as Ukraine. Before 2022, Belarus was seen as the next former Soviet territory to be annexed by Russia. The response of Ukrainians to Russian invasion has changed attitudes towards annexation of Belarus. This is despite the fact that the longtime (since 1994) Belarus president-for-life Alexander Lukashenko has ruled Belarus as a loyal ally of Russia. That has not helped the Belarussian economy or improved the lives of Belarus voters. A new post-Soviet Union generation of voters noticed how life was better in democracies, especially other former victims of Russian rule like neighboring Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Ukraine. They blame Lukashenko for the poverty and mismanaged economy in Belarus, as well as an incompetent response to covid19.
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There is more.

This supports my theory that the war in Ukraine is about Putin's desire to reimpose a Russian empire and not about any alleged Nazis within Ukraine.  

See, also:

EU debates extending Belarus sanctions to cut loopholes

The loopholes targeted are those Belarus is using to help Russia evade EU sanctions. 

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