NATO tanks coming to Ukraine

 ISW:

A coalition of NATO member states reportedly will send Ukraine modern main battle tanks. The Wall Street Journal reported on January 24 that US President Joe Biden is preparing to send "a significant number" of Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine and that the White House may announce the delivery as soon as January 25.[1] German newspaper Der Spiegel reported on January 24 that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz decided to deliver at least one tank company (14 tanks) of Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine in an unspecified time frame.[2] Poland likely will send Ukraine Leopard 2 tanks following Germany’s decision. Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak stated on January 24 that Poland formally requested Germany grant permission to transfer Poland’s Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock stated that Berlin would not interfere if Poland wanted to send its Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.[3] British officials confirmed on January 16 that the United Kingdom would send Ukraine 14 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine.[4] French President Emmanuel Macron stated he would not rule out the possibility of France sending Ukraine Leclerc tanks on January 22.[5]

Western states’ provision of main battle tanks to Ukraine will help enable Ukraine to conduct mechanized warfare to defeat the Russian military and liberate Ukrainian territory. ISW previously assessed that the West has contributed to Ukraine’s inability to take advantage of having pinned Russian forces in Bakhmut by slow-rolling or withholding weapons systems and supplies essential for large-scale counteroffensive operations.[6] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny previously emphasized in December 2022 that Ukraine needs 300 main battle tanks (among other weapon systems) to enable Ukrainian counteroffensives.[7]
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We should soon find out whether Russia has anti-tank weapons like those used to kill their own tanks in the early days of the war.  I suspect Russia will have to respond with its own tanks.  They lost many of their modern tanks in the early days of the war and will likely have to respond with tanks they took out of storage.  I have not seen any evidence that they have been using them to any extent in recent battles.  That could be because they are concerned about western anti-tank weapons used by Ukraine.  I have seen no evidence that the Wagner group mercenaries have been using any mechanized war machines.

See, also:

U.S. expected to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, directing a political message to Germany

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But given the sophistication, complexity and firepower of the tanks, it could be months or even more than a year before they reach the battlefield and Ukrainian fighters are trained to use the equipment.

Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, in a nod to objections from Defense Department officials, said the Abrams tank was a major asset in combat, but not one that is easy to operate.

The tank "is a very capable battlefield platform,” he said Tuesday, adding, “it’s also a very complex capability.”

“And so, like anything that we’re providing to Ukraine, we want to ensure that they have the ability to maintain it, sustain it, to train on it.”
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And:

 Russia is sticking to its failed strategy of filling gaps in decimated front-line units with 'ill-equipped, ill-trained' troops, US official says

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A senior US military official told reporters on Monday that Russia has been sending replacements for units that have suffered substantial casualties in an attempt to strengthen defensive positions and support operations. But even with the increase in personnel, the reinforcement troops are not bringing "a significant enhancement in terms of the training of those forces," they said.

"So again, ill-equipped, ill-trained, rushed to the battlefield," the official said of the Russian replacement troops, adding that they are heading to positions along the front number in the tens of thousands. Notably, they said, these troops are not arriving as organized units but are just filling in gaps wherever needed.
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In addition to using poorly trained and equipped troops to fill the gaps, prisoners recruited by the notorious Wagner Group paramilitary organization and newly mobilized troops have been used as sponges, absorbing heavy Ukrainian fire before better trained forces move in behind them, a US official said previously.
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And:

 Pentagon Will Increase Artillery Production Sixfold for Ukraine

The Army’s top acquisition official says production of the 155-millimeter shells badly needed by Kyiv will rise to 90,000 a month in two years.

And:

 Iran’s Weapon Exports Are Becoming A Big Problem For The West

And:

 U.S. Weapons Industry Unprepared for a China Conflict, Report Says

The war in Ukraine is highlighting the inability of U.S. arms companies to replenish the military’s stocks

The war in Ukraine has exposed widespread problems in the American armaments industry that may hobble the U.S. military’s ability to fight a protracted war against China, according to a new study.

The U.S. has committed to sending Ukraine more than $27 billion in military equipment and supplies—everything from helmets to Humvees—since Russia’s invasion of the country last year. The infusion of arms is credited with helping the Ukrainian forces blunt Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion in what has become the biggest land war in Europe since World War II.
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