ISIL's unconventrional strategy

Amir Taheri:

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To start with, Daesh isn’t fighting a conventional war of position. It’s operating in three concentric circles.

The inner circle centers on the Syrian city of Raqqah, where the “caliphate” has its headquarters, and on Mosul, Iraq’s No. 3 city.

The next circle includes the Iraqi cities Ramadi, Fallujah and Tikrit, which ISIS uses as bases for launching rapid strikes into other cities, including Baghdad itself.

In the third circle, ISIS maintains a number of units based in villages across the great desert that spans from Syria and Iraq to Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Following a model set by the Prophet in his own wars, these units engage in hit-and-run incursions such as the one against Saudi Arabia last month.

Most original inhabitants refuse to return to the towns and villages liberated from ISIS. The heap of rabble that is now Kobani has drawn no more than 10 percent to come home. Less than 5 percent are willing to return to Jabal Sanjar, the stronghold of Yazidis for over 1,000 years.

In some localities, Iraqi officers have noticed a “Stockholm Syndrome,” with local Shiite and Turkman inhabitants expressing some sympathy for “the purity and efficiency” of Daesh’s rule.

It is not solely by weapons that ISIS imposes its control. More important is the terror it has instilled in millions in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and, increasingly, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Indeed, Jordan’s panic-driven decision to execute two jihadists in response to the burning of its captured pilot is another sign of the terror Daesh has instilled in Arab governments and much of the public.

In the short run, terror is a very effective means of psychological control of unarmed and largely defenseless populations.

Even in areas far from Daesh’s reach, growing numbers of preachers, writers, politicians and even sheiks and emirs, terrorized by unprecedented savagery, are hedging their bets.

Today, Daesh is a menacing presence not only in Baghdad but in Arab capitals from Cairo to Muscat — an evil ghost capable of launching attacks in the Sinai and organizing deadly raids on Jordanian and Saudi borders.

ISIS enjoys yet another advantage: It has a clear strategy of making areas beyond its control unsafe. No one thinks Daesh can seize Baghdad, but few Baghdadis feel they’re living anything close to a normal life.

Daesh’s message is clear: No one is safe anywhere, including in non-Muslim lands, until the whole world is brought under “proper Islamic rule.”
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Much of their success can be blamed on Obama's inept restrictions on the use of force.  The air attacks appear to be mostly pin pricks and are not consistent enough to do strategic damage to the movement.  The targeting appears to be sporadic.  The claim that there are few targets is belied by the fact of Jordan's strikes after the burning of their pilot.  There is also a problem with the failure to adequately supply search and rescue operations close to the fight which has led some like the UAE to stop participating.

It is going to take a much more concentrated air campaign and the addition of ground forces in the region supported by US special ops forces to take out this band of religious bigots.