Defeat for Hezballah

Chester has a discussion on what a defeat for Hezballah would achieve and what it would look like.

Here are my comments:

A defeat for Hezballah is a strategic defeat for Iran. Hezballah is using up the ordinance that Iran expected to use to deter and punish Israel if it attacked its nuke facilities. It is also a defeat for Syria which uses Hezballah in much the same way Pakistan's ISI used the Taliban to control a neighboring country.

For the defeat to be complete the Hezzies have to be disarmed. The current competing cease fire proposals are in major conflict on this point. What this really means is that neither side is ready for a cease fire that is short of what they would achieve by continuing their operations. Unless the military situation chages, I believe Israel will have more than the short time suggested by many to continue its war. Hezballah has not been hurt enough to give up its objectives yet either.


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