ISIL has always lashed out in different direction when under attack

Washington Post:
ISIS’s ambitions are growing even as its territory shrinks

The slaughter of civilians in Istanbul, Dhaka, Bangladesh, and Baghdad over the past week reveal two possible patterns: that strikes beyond the caliphate's borders are becoming more frequent and are being conducted by gangs of assailants, instead of an individual assailant.
This has always been one of ISIL's strategic responses to attacks.  Initially, it resulted in territorial gains, but the attacks that have shrunk its territory have limited its counter thrust to suicidal missions by crowd sourcing individual jihads. The crowd sourcing has long been a part of Islamic tradition in war fighting.  The Ottoman Turks used it as an element in their own wars.

The best way to defeat this strategy is to commit sufficient resources to take out the caliphate.  That is something Obama and others in the West have been unwilling to do.  Obama seems willing to accept a certain level of terrorist attacks and the mass murders that come with it to avoid using the force needed to take down the caliph.

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