Democrats' hope to take over Texas?

George Will:

Political conventions are echo chambers designed to generate feelings of invincibility, sending forth the party faithful with a spring in their steps and hope in their hearts. Who would want to be a wet blanket at such moveable feasts?

Steve Munisteri would. Although he calls himself “the eternal optimist,” he respects reality, which nowadays is not conducive to conservatives’ cheerfulness. He served as chairman of the Texas Republican Party from 2010 to 2015 because he discerned “a seismic shift in demographics” that meant his state could “turn Democratic sooner than most people thought.”

The fact that Republicans have won every Texas statewide office since 1994 — the longest such streak in the nation — gives them, he says, “a false sense of security.” In 2000, Republican candidates at the top of the ticket — in statewide races — averaged about 60 percent of the vote. By 2008, they averaged less than 53 percent. And Republican down-ballot winners averaged slightly over 51 percent.

Texas is not wide-open spaces filled with cattle and cotton fields. Actually, it is 84.7 percent urban, making it the 15th-most-urban state. It has four of the nation’s 11 largest cities — Houston, San Antonio, Dallas and Austin. Texas’s growth is in its cities, where Republicans are doing worst.

Dallas has gone from solidly Republican to solidly Democratic. A recent poll showed Harris County (Houston), which is about 69 percent minority, with a majority identifying as Democrats. The San Antonio metropolitan area is about three-quarters minority. Travis County (Austin, seat of the state government, the flagship state university and a burgeoning tech economy attracting young people) voted 60.1 percent for President Obama in 2012.
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The “blue wall” — the 18 states and the District of Columbia that have voted Democratic in at least six consecutive presidential elections — today has 242 electoral votes. Texas, which is not a brick in this wall, has 38 electoral votes. After the 2020 Census, it probably will have 40, perhaps 41. Were Texas to become another blue brick, the wall — even if the 2020 Census subtracted a few electoral votes from the current 18 states — would have more than the 270 votes needed to elect a president.
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The reason that Democrats keep losing in Texas is they have poor candidates and they are wrong on the issues, regardless of the demographic makeup.  While Texas has been a destination state from many leaving the "blue wall" states, people come to Texas looking for the opportunities that have been blocked by high taxes and regulations in the blue states.

While His[anics are a growing part of the population mix, many of them understand the problem with Democrat dependency politics.  They are entrepreneurs and hard workers.  Outside of the border areas, they are becoming more Republican.  One of the biggest reasons Texas is still trending red is because Republican leaders have generated a climate that is creating millions of jobs.