Ukraine pushes Russians away from the banks of the Dnipro river
Ukrainian forces have gained control of the Dnipro left bank’s floodplain in Kherson Oblast, forcing the Russians to build new defensive lines on hills farther from the river, former Aidar Battalion company commander Yevhen Dykyi told Radio NV.
"In fact, the Dnipro floodplain is effectively under Ukrainian control. And now the Russians are trying to prevent any further steps. They have essentially ceded the floodplain to us, but they are trying to dig in and fortify themselves where the terrain begins to rise. Although it's not accurate to call them hills, there is a slight elevation compared to the mostly flat terrain. At the moment, they are trying to dig in, fortify themselves, and establish some sort of defensive line along this elevation," Dykyi said, noting that the Russians have nothing similar to the so-called Surovikin defensive line.
Read also: Russian forces forced to relocate amidst Kherson setbacks – General Staff
"They built the Surovikin line for nine months, and now no one is giving them that much time, not even close. That's why, if we use World War II comparisons from time to time, we can say that our ’Normandy landing’ has already happened, and now, let's say, our Ardennes is ahead of us. That is, to break through from the beaches, so to speak, ‘from Normandy,’ in our case, from the Dnipro River floodplain, to break through into a wide operational space."
There have been reports of successes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and advancements on the left bank of the Kherson region since mid-October. There were also reports of a breakthrough across the Dnipro into the occupied region near the villages of the Oleshkivska community.
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Judging by the reaction of Russian "war correspondents," this operation could be more significant than previous similar raids by the AFU, the Institute for the Study of War said.
Analysts reported progress toward the village of Krynka in late October, and on Nov. 10 there were signs of a likely expansion of the foothold and the cutting of a key road from Nova Kakhovka to Oleshky.
Ukrainian forces have successfully deployed three brigades on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast as the broader southern counteroffensive culminated, The Guardian reported on Nov. 16, citing unnamed Western officials.
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When you consider the Russian casualties in this war and their lack of progress toward their objectives it looks like they would be wise to just go home and try to rebuild their army. Their reasons for going to war were suspect, to begin with. Ukraine was never a threat to Russia. Since going to war Russia is seen as a much weaker power than it was considered before.
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The intelligence suggests that the Russian Black Sea Fleet is encountering operational hurdles due to its reliance on the Novorossiysk Bay for reloading cruise missiles. Traditionally, the Sevastopol Bay has been used for this purpose, but increased attacks by Ukraine have led Russia to consider Novorossiysk as a viable alternative.
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This shift requires the development of new processes for the delivery, storage, processing, and loading of missiles. The temporary suspension of attacks on Ukraine is due to Russia addressing these logistical issues, UK intelligence suggests.
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