California Hispanics turn against the governor

 Monica Showalter:

The mainstream media have been promoting the truism that California's embattled Gov. Gavin Newsom will win his voter recall referendum.  It's in the bag.

The Democratic Party, meanwhile, has been saying since at least 2008 that it has the Hispanic vote locked up.  Another "certainty."

Here comes a poll, though, reported by the Daily Caller, showing that both are deluding themselves:

More than half of Hispanics in California say they would vote to recall Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, according to an Inside California Politics/Emerson College poll published Tuesday.

The poll of 1,000 registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, showed Californians are split on the issue with 46% in favor of recalling Newsom and 48% are against it. Among Hispanics, 54% said they would vote to recall.

This is a startling counter-indicator, given that not only is it unfavorable to Newsom, but it's also not consistent with the views of other demographic groups, such as blacks, who support Newsom; Asians, who support Newsom; and whites, who are almost evenly divided about him.

Here's the big kicker: Hispanics form 39% of the population and 35% of the voter base, making them California's biggest and most important constituency.

...

There is much more.

This looks like an election where neither side can be comfortable at this point and it will probably be determined by whether groups are motivated to get out and vote.