Identity politics not working for Democrats with Hispanics

Ed Morrissey:

Welcome to the junction of “despite” and “because.” Democrats have assumed that Donald Trump’s harsh immigration-enforcement policies would inspire massive turnout in Hispanic communities, especially with the media firestorm fueled by family separation outcomes. Latino voters would lead the repudiation of Trump’s policies at the ballot box in November, leading to a new Democratic majority in Congress.

Sounds like a reasonable plan, right? Not so fast, reports Josh Kraushaar at National Journal. So far, the turnout in primaries in predominantly Hispanic districts looks an awful lot like 2016 rather than 2006:

Democrats counting on President Trump’s hard-line immigration policies to spark energized Hispanic turnout and a wave against GOP candidates in this year’s midterms will be surprised to see what’s transpiring. Even during the heat of the family-separation crisis, Democrats are underperforming in heavily Hispanic constituencies, from GOP-held border battlegrounds in Texas to diversifying districts in Southern California to the nation’s most populous Senate battleground in Florida.

If immigration affects the battle for Congress, it will be because of the anti-Trump backlash among suburban women as much as any increased mobilization in the Hispanic communities. The early returns are a sobering reminder for Democrats that, even as the Republican Party is becoming a more nativist institution, GOP candidates are still holding their own in diverse battlegrounds by distinguishing themselves from Trump.

In state after state, the backlash — at least among Hispanics — has yet to materialize. Kraushaar notes that there has been no evidence of a wave in the very districts that Democrats thought immigration would drive turnout. Nothing changed in the special-election primary for Blake Farenthold’s seat in Texas, which is majority-Hispanic. Senator Bill Nelson is still struggling in his re-election bid in Florida against Rick Scott, whose positive polling numbers among Hispanics almost exactly equals Nelson’s. California’s primaries also showed little evidence of any immigration-motivated turnout wave.
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The fact that Hispanic unemployment is at an all time low probably has something to do with this.  Plus Hispanics have more conservative values.   They would rather have a job than benefits.  They are not in the strong pro-abortion camp either.  In Texas, Hispanics have also found a home in the GOP in many cases with many of them winning office as Republicans.  While certain enclaves can be somewhat tribal such as in the El Paso area, p0thers are more connected to the conservative values of the state.

It should also be noted that in Texas especially, most Hispanics are not immigrants.  Many of their families histories in the area predate that of the Anglos.  Several Hispanics also sided with the Texans in its war for independence.