Inside the Pew polls 'dead heat'

The poll has the race tied at 47-47.  Some of the data just does not compute. It shows Obama with a strong lead in being willing to work with members of the other party.  Are voters really this uninformed?  Obama could not attract any Republican votes to his hated health care bill and got only a handful for the stimulus. He botched negotiations over the debt crisis.  It is hard to imagine a worse track record in working with the other party.

The poll also shows Romney significantly over performing  McCain with women and young people.  When you combine that with the enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans I think it is highly like that 47 is a ceiling for Obama.

Other polling is showing Romney doing much better with independents.
Resurgent Republic released its latest survey in conjunction with Democracy Corps.for National Public Radio. The top line number shows Mitt Romney with 48 percent and President Obama with 47 percent. But the striking thing about the polls, Resurgent Republic’s Luke Frans tells me, is that “Romney is making significant gains among Independents, increasing his lead over Obama (51-39, up from 46-42 in September) and improving his image (54 favorable/40 unfavorable, up from 42/48 in July).” Mitt Romney’s big lead with independents in virtually every state and national poll suggests the center-left coalition that lifted Obama into office has been decimated. The story of the election appears to be the reassembling of the center-right majority for the GOP presidential ticket.
If you unskew these polls and use the party ID found by both Gallup and Rasmussen, Romney is likely to win with a significantly higher margin than indicated.


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