Al Qaeda's assessment of situation in Iraq

Rowan Scarborough has a followup on yesterday's revelations about al Qaeda's own assessment of their dire situation. What is interesting is how the main stream media's analysis has been so wrong. Some are still resisting acceptance of the al Qaeda situation even though it came from a "thumb drive" found in Zarqawi pocket. All their predictions of US and Iraqi defeat have never made sense on a rational look at the battle space, where al Qaeda has never won a battle.

The media misjudgment has been based on a false metric of failure to stop militarily insignificant attacks. While the media was blaming the US and Iraqi forces for not stopping the attacks on non combatants, the attacks were having a counterproductive effect among the Iraqis, driving the people away from the insurgents and driving up the traffic in actionable intelligence tips to US and Iraqi forces. The tip line has been the most valid metric of the war and the media pretty much ignored it. But it was the tip line that permitted the US and Iraqi forces to make the significant attacks on al Qaeda resources that Zarqawi noted in his list of troubles.

The media has also been al Qaeda's best ally in terms of blowing up non combatants giving these odious actions more coverage than they deserved and failing to note the wickedness of the war crimes perpetrated by the enemy in Iraq. None of these stories conveyed the outrage that stories about the hazing at Abu Ghraid had. Nor was their the condemnation that has been shown toward unproven charges against Marines in Haditha. Yet there should be no doubt that deliberately targeting non combatants is a war crime and that was exactly the enemy's strategy.

Ralph Peters agrees.


The internal document portrayed the terrorists as lying on the ropes, speaking of their "current bleak situation." Their self-evaluation was wildly at odds with the interpretation of events foisted upon the American people by left-wing elements in our media and by the leadership of the Democratic Party. Those who called for us to quit Iraq would have handed a broken terrorist movement a strategic victory.

There is much more. If you look at the defeatist side of the debate in the House and Senate yesterday, it appears that they would not believe their lying eyes when it came to these documents and the truth of what is happening in Iraq. While one of the new lines is "stay the course" is not a strategy, but in fact we have been using a winning strategy in Iraq and that is the one we should stay with.


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