Trump leads Harris in swing state

 Fox News:

Former President Trump is narrowly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential contest in Arizona, as the Democratic nominee loses ground among women, Hispanics and young voters.

A new Fox News survey of Arizona voters finds Harris trails Trump by 3 percentage points among likely voters in both the two-way matchup (48%-51%) and the expanded ballot that includes third-party candidates (47%-50%, with 3% backing other candidates). While 9 in 10 say their vote choice is locked in, both Harris and Trump have a handful of supporters saying they may change their mind.

In August, Harris was up by 1 point in the horse race among registered voters (50%-49%), while she’s down by 2 points today (48%-50%). All of these matchups are within the margin of error.

The 3-point shift among registered voters is mainly due to movement among young voters, women and Hispanics.

Since August, Harris’ 18-point lead among Hispanics has narrowed to 11 points and her 14-point edge among women is down to 8 points. What was a 13-point advantage for Harris among voters under age 30 is now a 12-point deficit, a 25-point shift. These changes are notable, even given that estimates among subgroups are more volatile.
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Arizona used to be a reliable GOP state before it was flooded with migrants from California who left that state because of its lurch to the left among other reasons.  It is not clear why Hispanics favor Harris.  She is an ultra left-winger and Hispanics tend to be more conservative.

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