Republicans should have redistricting edge

NY Times:

The midterm elections are being closely watched for the answer to a high-stakes question: Will Republicans have a majority in Congress for the next two years? But it is the outcome of a lower-profile battle over state legislatures that could strengthen the Republican party for a decade.

Republicans are within reach of gaining control of eight or more chambers in statehouses around the country this fall, according to interviews with Republicans, Democrats and independent political analysts. That would give Republicans the power to draw more Congressional districts in their favor, since the expected gains come just as many legislatures will play a major role in the once-a-decade process of redrawing the boundaries of those districts.

Republicans said they expected to win control of House chambers in Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, and the State Senate in Wisconsin, and saw at least a dozen other states where they have a reasonable chance of winning control of legislative chambers. Democrats acknowledge that they will be fighting to preserve their slim majorities in at least 10 chambers — including State Senates in Nevada, New Hampshire and New York — but say that they see opportunities to gain control of chambers in four other states.

Redistricting, it has often been said, turns the traditional definition of democracy on its head: rather than allowing voters to choose their leaders, it allows leaders to choose their voters.

The new districts are supposed to reflect the population shifts measured by the census. In practice, though, officials in both parties often try to gerrymander districts to help themselves and their parties win more elections.

So both parties are working frantically to eke out victories in state legislatures, pouring resources into races that are traditionally measured by the number of doors knocked on, not the number of ads broadcast.

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Louis Jacobson, who analyzed state legislative races for Governing magazine, rated 21 chambers now held by Democrats as “in play,” compared with only four held by Republicans. Larry J. Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, predicted recently that Republicans could gain 8 to 12 legislative chambers. Tim Storey, a senior fellow with the National Conference of State Legislatures, said that the way the mid-term election was shaping up, “you could see Republicans easily have their best redistricting position in the modern era of redistricting.”

Many of the factors making Congressional Democrats nervous are at play in local elections as well: frustration at the continuing economic downturn is being directed at incumbents and the party in power, Republicans have seen their popularity improving in some polls, and there are indications in recent polls that Republicans are more motivated to vote than Democrats. But Democrats warn that it would be premature to write them off. “As Mark Twain might say, the reports of Democratic state legislators’ deaths are greatly exaggerated,” read a recent post by the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, a 527 group that expects to spend $20 million this year on legislative races.

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There is much more.

Texas should be the prize since it is gaining four new seats. The control of the legislature was very close in the last election but the GOP held on. I expect the Republicans will actually pick up seats in 2010. In fact most of the transfers of seats are from blue states to red states. That will make it even more difficult for the Democrats to control Congress after 2010.