The Midwest Democrat Dumpster

Wesley Pruden:

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"There's little doubt that the Midwest is the Democrats' toughest region this year," says Democratic pollster Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling. He finds excitement and anticipation among Democrats down dramatically, a full 10 points from two years ago. The pols and their consultants call this "the enthusiasm gap," and the learned professors of gapology say it's far more fearsome than gaps of elections past, such as the once-fashionable and now mostly forgotten "gender gap."

"If the election was held today, the party would almost certainly lose the governorships it holds in Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania," he says. "It's also more than likely at this point to lose the Senate seats it has in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Indiana, miss out on a once-promising pickup opportunity in Ohio, and quite possibly lose [its] seat in Illinois as well." Worse, because the party is trying desperately to hold the House, "there are too many House seats the party could lose in the region to count."

If Democratic clients are hearing only dirges that grow more mournful by the day, Republican pollsters are sending situation reports to their clients reeking of language little short of gleeful happy talk. Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies calls the Midwest "a killing field" for Democrats this year. "From western [Pennsylvania] through to the Plains, Republicans are going to sweep a lot of Democrats right out of office."

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You may have heard all of this before, but I am not tired of seeing it yet. I hope these guys know what they are talking about.