Palin does it her way

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What a difference a year makes.

Palin is now more popular nationally, more in demand by conservative groups as a speaker and far richer than she's ever been. She has earned an estimated $9 million by talking and writing - her first book ended up being a best seller, thank you very much - and she has inked a reported $1 million annual contract with Fox News. Oh, and she's become the most important independent endorser in a generation: her 16-11 win-loss record in the recent GOP primaries gives her a lot of political chits to call in if - just to suppose - she were to weigh a presidential run.

This fall, as Palin looks out over Lake Lucille, she has just wrapped a reality show about Alaska (pocketing $2 million for the effort), she is penning a second book, and her every tweet is devoured by the same media that often scorn her. How, exactly, did this happen? How did Palin, with no official platform and winning little more than disdain from the GOP establishment - and contempt from the Obama-friendly media - make such a comeback? After all, she isn't just proving herself to the snobs in Washington; she's leading an insurgency against them. And she's winning. (See Sarah Palin's year of living large.)

The key question, of course, is just how far a Palin insurgency can travel. While she may be the most famous and charismatic Republican in America, there is significant disagreement over how that might translate into power. Polls show that 40% of Republicans doubt she's qualified for the presidency in 2012. There are signs that Palin herself has little interest in building a top-drawer campaign operation. No pollsters or big-time consultants have been hired. She doesn't have a formal spokesperson. Instead, Team Palin is run by a tiny inner circle of old friends and trusted aides.

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This year, she has backed 27 candidates - largely from the Tea Party - including 16 primary winners, mostly in Senate and gubernatorial races. While many - Alaska's Joe Miller, Delaware's Christine O'Donnell and Rand Paul in Kentucky, among them - were originally deemed outside the mainstream, Palin has helped change that river's course. All three won their GOP primaries against more moderate candidates.

She cyber-brandishes her power directly to her followers via a stream of Facebook posts and tweets (as well as a pair of videos). That means she doesn't need to run her talking points and beliefs through traditional media, save for an occasional Fox News chat. And she likes being unpredictable: in many cases, her endorsements take even the candidates themselves by surprise.

So far, she seems politically sure-footed, riding the Tea Party wave like a skilled surfer. "It is just so inspiring to see real people - not politicos, not inside-the-Beltway professionals - come out and speak out and stand up for commonsense, conservative principles," Palin says in a video she released this week. "This party that we call the Tea Party is the future of politics." No one knows what Palin's immediate future holds, never mind the election of 2012. She has been coyly dropping hints. If no one else steps up, "I would offer myself in the name of service to the public," she told Fox News on Wednesday.

Washington pundits are already scoffing at the idea of a Palin candidacy, especially at the notion that her GOP giant-killing makes her the one to beat. Palin's "the front runner?" asked the New York Times' Douthat last weekend. "That's bunkum." But if she has proven anything this year, it's her ability to surprise - and beat expectations.

Those who underestimate Palin, miss how she connects with voters. Even if some voters do not think she should be President, more agree with her views on the issues than agree with Obama. That is something I have noticed from the beginning of her time on the national stage. While critics and pundits have tried to belittle her and denigrate her, the positions she takes on most issues are those more Americans take.

She found away around the media that hated her and now that same media is finally giving her some respect. I don't know if she will be a candidate in 2012. I don't think she has made that decision yet. But she will definitely be a player in deciding who the GOP nominee will be.