Measuring progress in Iraq

Washington Post:

Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said the ongoing increase of nearly 30,000 U.S. troops in the country has achieved "modest progress" but has also met with setbacks such as a rise in devastating suicide bombings and other problems that leave uncertain whether his counterinsurgency strategy will ultimately succeed.

Assessing the first two months of the U.S. and Iraqi plan to pacify the capital, senior American commanders -- including Petraeus; Adm. William J. Fallon, head of U.S. forces in the Middle East; Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, commander of military operations in Iraq; and top regional commanders -- see mixed results. They said that while an increase in U.S. and Iraqi troops has improved security in Baghdad and Anbar province, attacks have risen sharply elsewhere. Critical now, they said in interviews this week, is for Iraqi leaders to forge the political compromises needed for long-term stability.

The commanders search for signs of success. On Friday night at dusk, Petraeus boarded a helicopter to look for scenes of normalcy and progress from above the maelstrom of the capital.

"On a bad day, I actually fly Baghdad just to reassure myself that life still goes on," he said, leaning back and propping his legs on the seat in front of him.

The aircraft banked right and Petraeus caught sight of a patch of relative calm. "He's actually watering the grass!" Petraeus said with a laugh, peering down at a man tending a soccer field, with children playing nearby.

Seconds later, the aircraft pivoted again, exposing boarded-up shops on a deserted, trash-strewn street. A bit farther, along the Tigris River, a hulking pile of twisted steel came into view -- the remains of the Sarafiya bridge, blown up April 12 amid a series of spectacular and deadly suicide bombings.

"That's a setback," Petraeus said, his voice lower. "That breaks your heart."

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"We have certainly pulled neighborhoods back from the brink," Petraeus said, comparing the signs of revitalization now to his initial shock at the stark deterioration of parts of the capital upon his arrival in February.

So far, the deployment of additional troops in Baghdad is only 60 percent complete, and incoming units in many parts of the city are still conducting initial, labor-intensive operations to "clear" neighborhoods before setting up patrol bases, a pillar of Petraeus's counterinsurgency plan. Iraq's security forces have contributed the nine battalions pledged for the Baghdad operations, and rotate those forces every 90 days.

The bases -- which so far include 21 combat outposts and 26 joint security stations run together with Iraqi forces -- are a key building block in the effort to increase security for Baghdad residents. Another part of the strategy is to wall off communities along their traditional boundaries to control population access and prevent attacks.

"That's part of the concrete caterpillar," Petraeus said, pointing out a barrier going up in a neighborhood in west Baghdad. "That market was shut completely down when I took command -- now it has 200 shops," he said.

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Another major concern shared by U.S. military leaders is whether the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is capable of solidifying gains in security as well as making the crucial political compromises needed to achieve peace. "Will the Iraqis generate the capacity in their security forces and in their government to sustain this over time? That's what keeps me up at night," Odierno said.

Iraqi leaders "come from narrow political backgrounds . . . but now there is an expectation they will be able to make decisions well beyond the group they represent. This is struggle for them," Fallon said.

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In military operations One side or the other has the initiative most of the time. Usually the side with the initiative is the one with the best chance of winning. Right now Gen. Petraeus has it and the enemy is reacting. The enemy's reactions have varied from attacks outside the security zone to finding cracks within to exploit. Right now Petraeus in still inside the enemy's decision loop which is where you want to be. The difference between war and manufacturing is that in war people within the space you are trying to shape , run like the raw material of manufacturing, have the ability to think and react. Wretchard at the Belmont Club, and Bill Roggio both discusses how the enemy is attempting to react to Gen Petraeus' initiative. They also discuss how Gen. Casey's small foot print strategy failed to respond to the enemy's initiative.

The Iraqi military forces appear to be on board with the surge and are contributing what only local forces can in the ways of intelligence and generating a wealth of tips from Iraqi civilians who do not want to be dominated by the Islamist.

Less realistic is the expectation of political compromise. While the Shia government is getting most of the heat for this lack of progress, I think it is probably misplaced. The people who are seeking these compromises rarely do so in good faith. They still want the current government to not just fail but to go away and let them rule.

Even as they grow weaker by the day, the expectations of the Sunni insurgents in seeking "compromise" do not shrink. There is also the problem of the fact that al Qaeda is actively seeking to kill those who are willing to work with the government. The Sunnis in effect find themselves in the same situation as Palestinian "leaders" who if they negotiated a compromise with Israel would find themselves murdered by their own side for their efforts. One of the reasons for this inability to compromise is the pseudo religious aspects of their efforts. When you believe you are on a mission from God, you don't want to anger him by giving up on his objectives.

The one glimmer of hope in the political arena is the Anbar Sunni Sheiks. They have helped turn the situation around in that province and they might be able to persuade other Sunnis to join their example.