The showdown in Diyala

Bill Roggio:

As Iraqi and Coalition forces build their forces to strike al Qaeda in their base in Diyala, the terror group is hitting hard at existing combat outposts in the violence-racked province. Over the past several days, al Qaeda in Iraq has conducted several suicide strikes at U.S. and Iraqi combat outposts, police stations and Army checkpoints throughout the province.

The latest attack occurred today in the city of Khalis. A suicide bomber rammed his car into an Iraqi Army checkpoint. Ten Iraqi Soldiers were killed in the strike. This attack was preceded by a suicide strike on an Iraqi police station in Balad Ruz on Wednesday, April 25. Four police were killed and 16 wounded in the bombing. On Monday, April 23, al Qaeda in Iraq conducted a complex suicide attack on a patrol base in patrol base in As Sadah, which was followed by an small ground assault. Nine U.S. soldiers were killed and 20 wounded after the suicide bomb collapsed a building. Fifteen of the wounded soldiers later returned to duty.

As we noted yesterday, the As Sadah attack fits the mold of past al Qaeda assaults in Iraq. Al aeda started the attack with a small arms assault, then used two suicide vehicles to attempt to penetrate the outer security wall. Had the wall been breached, al Qaeda would have tried to push through with infantry. The U.S. soldiers destroyed the suicide vehicles before they could reach the perimeter of the patrol base. However "the explosive blast from the second truck ruptured the wall of the patrol base building, collapsing the second floor and, causing the majority of the Soldier casualties.

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Al Qaeda has two goals in conducting such strikes. First, the terrorists wish to overrun a U.S./Iraqi outpost to create a propaganda victory. Al Qaeda no doubt had video crews available to film the strike, and the destruction of a combat outpost would play to two markets. Al Qaeda hopes to destroy the will of the U.S. public with such graphic images, as well as boost the morale of its own fighters and provide material for its recruiting campaign.

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There is more. This is one of the best analysis I have seen on the situation in Diyala.

I think we will see another Tal Afar type operation where the area is isolated and then enemy forces will be attacked in detail. Diyala is where the enemy has fled to, and it is where he will have to make his last stand, if the Democrats do not bail him out.