McCain bets US does not want to be loser

Washington Post:

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) will launch a high-profile effort next week to convince Americans that the Iraq war is winnable, embracing the unpopular conflict with renewed vigor as he attempts to reignite his stalling bid for the presidency.

With the Virginia Military Institute as a backdrop, McCain plans to argue in a speech on Wednesday that victory in Iraq is essential to American security and that President Bush's war machine is finally getting on track after four years, aides and advisers said.

McCain's rosy assessment of safety on Iraq's streets after his recent visit to a Baghdad marketplace was mocked by many, prompting him to tell a television reporter that he "misspoke" and now regrets the comments. But, in the interview to be broadcast tomorrow, the senator sticks by his defense of the overall war effort, predicting that failure in Iraq would be "catastrophic."

It is a gamble at a critical time for the former front-runner for the Republican nomination, the political equivalent of a "double-down" in blackjack, as one person close to the campaign put it. A candidate once seen as the almost inevitable winner, McCain is struggling in the polls and this week placed dead last in fundraising among the three top Republican and three top Democratic contenders.

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... "I believe we can succeed." And he urges viewers to "support this new strategy, let's support this new general and let's give it everything we can to have it succeed."

The Iraq speech will be the first of three major policy addresses McCain will give in the coming weeks as he prepares to officially announce his candidacy, with stops beginning in New Hampshire and ending in Arizona at the end of the month. He will give a speech about taxes, trade and government waste on April 16 and a lecture on domestic policy, perhaps emphasizing energy issues, a week later, according to advisers.

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McCain will be playing to his strength if he follows this course. He should begin by asking his audience how many of them want to lose the war in Iraq. He should also openly challenge those in the opposition who do want to lose.

McCain's weakness in the polls has nothing to do with his stand on Iraq and he does not need to apologize for supporting our efforts there.

His weakness with the conservative base of the party is on the issues that the media supports like fighting tax cuts and campaign finance. He also really angered the base with his joining the gang of 14 on judges another popular move with the media. These three events have hurt him the most and the media is having difficulty comprehending their effect on his campaign. A fourth issue that is hurting him is teaming up with Kennedy on immigration. It is a move that is popular with the media and liberals but a substantial portion of conservatives see it as abrogating the rule of law on immigration violations.