Iran will probably drag out hostage return

Eli Lake:

American officials, hoping for a tougher line from Europe and Britain, fear the Iranian government will hold hostage the 15 royal marines seized on March 23 until Prime Minister Blair is out of office this summer.

That was a concern this week as Iran hardened its line in negotiations, demanding an official apology from London and airing an alleged apology from one of the seamen captured last month, the second such televised confession of a British captive.

Yesterday, an American intelligence official said the combination of the provocative aired confessions and changing demands made in diplomatic channels has led the Pentagon and military to conclude that the Iranians intend to drag out any negotiations for the release of the hostages until Mr. Blair is out of office, a move in line with the negotiation tack favored by the mullahs in the hostage crisis with the Carter administration. The Iranians waited until after the 1980 election to release the diplomats they had held for 444 days.

While Mr. Blair has not yet announced when he will step down as prime minister, the British press wrote in September that he is preparing to step down as the head of the Labor Party on May 31 and will leave 10 Downing Street on July 26. If the Iranians hold onto the hostages until Mr. Blair is out of office, it would also be a blow to American prestige, as Mr. Blair was the most vocal ally of America's war to topple Saddam Hussein.

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I think there is another issue ticking behind the scenes in this kidnapping-extortion plot. The item first printed in the Russian media and picked up by Israeli and other media suggesting the US was going to launch a strike against Iran on Good Friday or with in a matter of weeks, may have spooked the Iranians into grabbing hostages to postponed the perceived attack.

I think that it is pretty clear that no US attack was coming, but we are dealing with emotionally immature leadership in Iraq that may have panicked at the suggestion that an attack was imminent and seized on the seizure as a way of avoiding it. Now that they have them, they have decided to let the Brits twist in the wind for awhile and hope to put forward any attacks.